U.S. President Donald Trump warned House Republicans on Tuesday that he could face impeachment if the party loses this year’s midterm elections.
“You’ve got to win the midterms, because if we don’t, it’s just going to be—they’ll find a reason to impeach me,” Trump said during a speech to House Republicans. “I’ll get impeached.”
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 42%, amid concerns that he is not doing enough to address rising living costs, while divisions within the GOP over his handling of the Epstein files have further strained the party.
Polls currently show Democrats leading in the midterms, and Polymarket betting markets put the odds of Democrats winning control of the House at nearly 80% this year.
All members of the House and one-third of the Senate are up for election in November, and a loss of Republican control in one or both chambers could significantly affect the party’s policy agenda during the final two years of Trump’s term.
One high-priority legislative item for Republicans is the long-awaited crypto market structure bill, which aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the sector. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has said the bill is scheduled for another vote next Thursday.
Trump already impeached twice
Trump was impeached twice during his first term. The first, in 2019, charged him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress over allegations that he pressured Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 election.
His second impeachment came in mid-January 2021, just days before leaving office after losing to Joe Biden, with the charge of inciting an insurrection following the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack. In both cases, the Senate acquitted him.
If Trump were impeached a third time, a Senate acquittal remains possible. Polymarket currently places a 67% chance on Republicans retaining Senate control in the midterms. Conversely, a Democratic-controlled House could use impeachment to block Trump’s agenda, creating potential gridlock.
Crypto controversy and party divisions
Some Democrats, including Representative Sean Casten and Senator Jon Ossoff, have suggested Trump should be impeached for his crypto-related activities, such as hosting a private dinner for top holders of his memecoin.
Trump has faced resistance to his crypto plans even within the GOP. Last year, a conservative faction blocked a slate of crypto bills unless a ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) was included. Republican leadership initially struck a deal to add a CBDC ban to a must-pass defense bill, securing support for bills like the GENIUS Act. However, the party later passed the defense bill without the CBDC ban, angering some members.
