Crypto markets rose 2.5% after U.S. President Donald Trump delivered mixed messages about a potential agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including reports pointing to a possible ceasefire that could bring a lasting end to the conflict.
In a strongly worded post on Truth Social on Sunday, Trump warned that Iran would be “living in Hell” if the key shipping route is not reopened. At the same time, he struck a more optimistic tone in a Fox News interview, saying Iran is “negotiating now” and suggesting there is a “good chance” of a deal within 24 hours.
On the back of the news, total crypto market capitalization increased by roughly $70 billion, or 2.5%, reaching an 11-day high of $2.44 trillion in early Monday trading. Bitcoin briefly climbed to $69,500 on Coinbase, according to TradingView data.
The modest rally triggered around $255 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for 73%, based on CoinGlass figures.
Trump’s remarks follow more than a month of conflict, which has driven up global oil prices and raised concerns about a potential global recession.
He had previously given Iran a 10-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but his latest comments indicate the timeline has been shortened to Tuesday, warning that failure to comply could lead to U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges.
“There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Strait, or you’ll be living in Hell — just watch!” he said.
Potential deal within 24 hours
Despite the harsh rhetoric, Trump indicated that diplomatic talks are underway, noting that Iran is “negotiating now” and expressing confidence in a “good chance” of reaching a deal within 24 hours. He also warned that if an agreement isn’t reached quickly, he is considering escalating the situation, saying he may “blow everything up and take over the oil.”
At the same time, an Axios report suggests that the US, Iran and regional mediators are working on the framework of a 45-day ceasefire that could eventually bring the conflict to an end, underscoring the mixed signals surrounding the situation.
Oil prices surge, raising inflation concerns
The prolonged conflict in the Middle East, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven crude oil prices up to around $112 per barrel as of Monday morning.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, if prices remain at these levels for another seven weeks, US inflation tied to the Consumer Price Index could climb to roughly 3.7%.
It also noted that since the start of the Iran conflict on Feb. 28, Americans have been spending an additional $240 million per day on fuel.
