Trailer orders jumped 86% in December, but recovery remains elusive
December had a notable uptick in U.S. trailer net orders, though market conditions remain challenging. FTR Transportation Intelligence data shows net orders jumped 86% from November to reach 24,282 units, while ACT Research’s figures indicate an even stronger 112% monthly gain to 25,300 units.
Despite the monthly rebound led mostly by the dry van segment, December orders still fell short of historical norms, with FTR noting that it’s 4% below the previous year and significantly under the 10-year December average of 33,623 units.
The recent spike appears to be driven by temporary factors, FTR reported, including deferred orders from September through December as companies rushed to place orders amid tariff uncertainties and pending trade investigations on imported van trailers from Canada, China and Mexico. Equipment planning also eased following regulatory clarity in November around Class 8 tariffs and EPA 2027 NOx regulations.
“Despite these positive signs, it is premature to declare that a sustained demand recovery has begun,” FTR said, adding that freight fundamentals and fleet profitability needs to “show meaningful improvement.”
The full-year picture reinforces this cautious outlook.
While 2025 orders totaled 173,144 units, up 5% year over year, FTR noted that much of this reflected delayed purchasing ahead of the November 2024 election and pushed into early 2025. More concerning, orders during the 2026 season (September-December 2025) dropped 20% year over year, suggesting weaker momentum.
Trailer production continued downward, hitting the lowest level since September 2010. Total build declined 13% from the previous month and 6% year over year to 11,801 units as OEMs limited output.
For the first time since March 2025, December orders surpassed production, offering manufacturers a 7.2-month backlog-to-build ratio and modest near-term visibility. Order trends in early 2026 will indicate whether this improvement is sustainable, FTR said.
Structural headwinds persist. Trade policies have created a higher cost environment through the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR.
“The potential for higher van trailer costs due to antidumping investigation also might already be influencing sourcing and pricing decisions,” Moyer added.
He noted that these factors are likely expected to keep buyers cautious, selective and focused on total cost of ownership.
Jennifer McNealy, director of CV market research and publications at ACT Research, noted that December’s uptick was expected.
“That said, preliminary data showed new vehicle demand for power units jolt awake in December, and those same factors of a firmer economic foundation, December’s weather-induced spike in freight rates, increasingly aged fleets, and some level of tariff-related clarity are also in play for trailing equipment demand,” McNealy said.
The level of economic activity that generates transportation demand remains weak, McNealy said. For-hire carrier profitability and uncertainty about future government policies continue to challenge sturdier trailer demand.
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