👋 Welcome to the 200th Daily Bitcoin Analysis!
To celebrate this milestone, today’s analysis will be different, our main focus will be on the XAUBTC chart, but first, let’s analyze gold and Bitcoin separately before combining the two.
✅ Gold
📅 Monthly Timeframe
Gold is in a completely bullish trend on the monthly chart and, in its latest candle, has set a new all-time high (ATH) at $4,380.
💥 The momentum of this wave, which started from $1,980, is extremely strong — not only has the RSI entered the Overbought zone, but it has also broken through the Overextended level at 85.55 and now stands at 92.
💫 The last time gold’s RSI was in this range was in 1973, about 50 years ago, making this the strongest momentum in half a century.
🔍 Considering that gold has risen more than 100% without any major correction and has reached the 1.5 Fibonacci level, the probability of a correction is very high.
✨ If the price continues to rise sharply in the next few candles, the trend will become unsustainable, since there has been no major profit-taking — a warning sign for the continuation of the rally.
📊 In case of a correction, the main Fibonacci support levels are $3,500 and $3,000, which are potential targets if the retracement begins.
👀 If this happens, two possible scenarios emerge:
🏦 Increased gold supply, which is unlikely due to its scarcity.
Profit-taking by institutional “whales” (such as government treasuries), which is a much more probable reason for a correction.
💵 Bitcoin
📅 Weekly Timeframe
Bitcoin is in a bullish trend on the weekly timeframe, having completed seven upward waves, with the last peak recorded at $124,000.
✨ This top was a fake breakout, followed by a correction candle, and the price is now moving toward the $100,000 region.
🔽 A strong triple-top bearish divergence is visible on the RSI, with confirmation coming if 44.53 is broken.
📉 If confirmed, Bitcoin could enter a long-term corrective phase, with possible downside targets near $70,000.
🧩 However, the trend is still bullish as long as no lower high and lower low form below $100,000.
💡 This means Bitcoin could potentially make one more upward leg, forming a rare nine-wave pattern — uncommon, but possible.
⭐ Given that gold is likely entering a correction phase, the profits taken by gold whales could flow into crypto, potentially fueling Bitcoin’s next upward wave.
👑 Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)
📅 Weekly Timeframe
Bitcoin dominance has been in an uptrend, reaching 65.84%, but weakness in the trend and rejection from that level triggered a deep correction.
💫 After breaking 60.64, it fell to 57%, where it has since bounced.
📉 If dominance forms a lower high below 60.64 (or even below 65.84) and then breaks 57%, that would confirm a downtrend.
✔️ In that case, the dominance targets are 55.26, 51.06, and potentially 47.76.
🚀 This scenario suggests that if money flows from gold into Bitcoin, it may later flow into altcoins as dominance declines — setting the stage for a possible altcoin season.
🔑 XAUBTC Chart
🧮 This chart represents gold’s strength relative to Bitcoin.
As seen, its overall structure in recent years has been bearish, reflecting stronger investment interest in Bitcoin compared to gold.
📊 The trend remained bearish until early 2025, showing no weakness — until recently.
🔺 After finding support near 0.027, the trend has shown clear signs of weakening, and price action now hints at potential bullish reversal signals.
☘️ The price has already formed a higher low, and if it consolidates above 0.03922 next week, we’ll have the first confirmation of a trend reversal.
📈 The main bullish confirmation would come after breaking 0.04543.
⚡️ However, one possible scenario is that gold enters a correction phase while Bitcoin completes its final bullish wave.
✅ Since this chart faces two strong resistance zones, rejection from 0.03922 or 0.04543 could send it back toward 0.027, implying a gold correction and a final bullish leg for Bitcoin.
💥 Considering Bitcoin dominance may also drop, it’s likely that capital will first move from gold into Bitcoin, and then, as dominance falls, into altcoins — potentially triggering the long-awaited altcoin season where altcoins experience explosive rallies.
⚖️ This is just one possible market scenario; other outcomes are possible.
Remember: Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
