I think in the next few months, liquidity will flow back into Bitcoin. Altseason probably won’t kick in until TOTAL3/ BTC drops to that key 0.2 level. This lines up with the last cycle too — altseason only took off after Bitcoin made a big move to the upside.
Here’s the fundamental breakdown:
1/ Right now, social risk is low — mostly long-term holders are in the game. But with the Fed’s recent rate cut, once Bitcoin makes a strong explosive move up, the hype will return. That’s when the YouTubers, casual investors, even grocery clerks and Uber drivers start talking about Bitcoin again.
2/ When these new investors look around, they’ll see Bitcoin has already pumped hard while most alts are still near the bottom. That’s when they start chasing hype coins, dreaming of 100x gains. At that point, real liquidity starts flowing into altcoins.
3/ Finally, when Bitcoin has run up a lot but alts are still lagging, the risk/reward flips. Holding Bitcoin starts to look riskier than holding alts. That’s when long-term holders rotate from BTC into alts — and altseason really begins.
