Risk factors: A close below ₹1,960 would invalidate the bullish setup and warrant exit.
On Thursday, July 31, 2025,the Nifty 50 fell by 86.70 points or 0.35%, closing at 24,768.35, while the BSE Sensex dropped 296.28 points or 0.36%, settling at 81,185.58. The Bank Nifty also continued to slide, losing 188.75 points or 0.34% to close at 55,961.95, breaching key intraday support levels and reflecting continued pressure in financials.
Sectorally, the market faced sharp losses, especially in cyclicals. The Oil & Gas sector declined 1.48%, the Pharma index fell 1.31%, and the Metal index dropped 1.22%, pulling the broader indices down. However, a few defensives offered limited relief — the FMCG sector surged 1.44%, while the Consumption index edged up by 0.33%, reflecting selective investor rotation.
Among top performers, Hindustan Unilever stood out with a strong gain of 3.44%, followed by Jio Finance at 2.79%, and Eternal, which rose 1.43%, supported by continued buying in high-quality and lower-beta names.
On the downside, heavyweights dragged the market further. Adani Enterprises plunged 4.03% amid valuation concerns, while Tata Steel dropped 2.12%, and Sun Pharma fell 1.56%, extending the pressure on broader sentiment.
Nifty Technical Analysis Daily & Hourly
On July 31, 2025, the Nifty closed at 24,768.35, down 86.70 points or 0.35%, marking a weak session after recent attempts to stabilize. While the index managed to trade above the key support zone of 24,700 during the session, it failed to sustain higher levels and remained under pressure, once again halting near the major resistance at 25,000. This continued rejection reinforces the fact that 25,000 remains a strong psychological and technical barrier, and unless it is decisively crossed, the market is likely to stay range-bound.
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty is currently trading below all its key short-term moving averages. The 20-day SMA stands at 25,119, while the 40-day EMA is placed at 24,994 — both levels the index needs to reclaim to revive near-term bullishness. On the intraday chart, Nifty is also hovering below the 20-hour SMA at 24,803 and the 40-hour EMA at 24,855, which indicates a mildly bearish structure in the short term.
Momentum indicators offer little comfort. The daily RSI remains weak at 41, while the hourly RSI has edged up slightly to 44 but still remains below neutral territory. The MACD on both daily (-86) and hourly (-12) timeframes continues to linger in negative territory, suggesting that bearish momentum, although not accelerating, is yet to fade meaningfully.
In the derivatives segment, the data continues to show a cautious undertone. Total Call open interest stands at 6.24 crore versus 5.63 crore on the Put side, resulting in a negative difference of 60.73 lakh contracts — a bearish sign. The change in open interest during the day also remains slightly negative, with Call OI rising by 2.85 crore and Put OI increasing by 2.76 crore, resulting in a net bearish bias of 9.28 lakh contracts. The Put-Call Ratio, however, has improved to 0.90, indicating some reduction in bearish sentiment but still not enough to signal a reversal. The highest Call OI is placed at the 26,000 strike, reinforcing a distant upside cap, while 25,000 continues to act as the immediate ceiling. On the Put side, maximum OI remains at the 24,000 strike, establishing it as a strong base. Meanwhile, India VIX ticked up 3% to 11.54, indicating a slight rise in volatility and caution.
In summary, the Nifty remains stuck in a consolidation phase with limited directional clarity. The failure to break and hold above 25,000 keeps the short-term trend neutral to bearish. While the index is holding above 24,700 support for now, traders should watch this level closely. A sustained move above 25,000-25,120 is essential for a meaningful bullish breakout, whereas a breakdown below 24,700 could drag the index towards 24,500-24,400. Until then, range-bound and tactical trading strategies such as “buy-on-dips” near support and “sell-on-rise” near resistance are likely to dominate.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
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