Three newly created wallets made a combined profit of $484,575 on Polymarket by betting that the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire by Tuesday, raising fresh concerns about potential insider trading.
According to blockchain data shared by Lookonchain on Wednesday, the wallets were created and funded the same day and had no prior onchain activity before placing bets on the “US x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market.
Data from Polymarket shows the three wallets earned $200,525, $158,600, and $125,450, respectively, at the time of writing. The “yes” positions were entered at implied probabilities ranging from 2.9% to 10.3%.
One trader made their first bet at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday—around eight and a half hours before Donald Trump confirmed a ceasefire agreement in a Truth Social post at 10:32 pm UTC.
The other two traders placed their initial bets earlier, at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday.
The bets were settled after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, though both sides signaled that further military action remains possible.
Prediction markets have rapidly grown into one of crypto’s most prominent use cases, consistently exceeding $10 billion in monthly trading volume. However, regulators and lawmakers worldwide have raised concerns over potential insider trading and market manipulation.
Insider trading concerns emerge in the US and Israel
In January, US lawmakers introduced legislation aimed at restricting government officials from trading on prediction market platforms after a Polymarket user made more than $400,000 on a bet tied to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being captured by US forces. The timing of the trade sparked suspicions that it may have been based on non-public information.
In February, Israeli authorities arrested and charged two individuals for allegedly using confidential information to place bets on a potential Israeli strike on Iran via Polymarket in June 2025. One of those detained was reportedly a member of the country’s military.
Platforms are now taking steps to address these risks. Polymarket and Kalshi have introduced measures to detect and deter insider trading. In February, Kalshi said it had formed an independent advisory committee and partnered with crypto surveillance firm Solidus Labs to monitor, investigate, and prevent market abuse.
