A post-shutdown focus on regulatory clarity could provide a significant long-term tailwind.
While the broader crypto market remains focused on macroeconomic uncertainty, XRP is positioned for a potentially volatile month, driven by a key ETF launch, growing institutional adoption, and a post-shutdown regulatory landscape.
The most immediate catalyst is the debut of the first U.S. spot XRP ETF.
Canary Capital’s fund, set to trade under the ticker XRPC on Nasdaq starting Thursday, will hold physical XRP and charge a 0.50% management fee, making XRP the fourth crypto asset, after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, to get a U.S. spot ETF.
The token has already reacted positively, up 4.1% over 24 hours to trade at $2.51, according to CoinGecko data.
Bullish sentiment is high among investors, with the long-to-short ratio on Binance hitting 2.59, though this has also led to $7.76 million in long liquidations.
“The launch of the U.S. XRP ETF is quite symbolic, as XRP and Ripple were once at the center of the SEC’s regulatory battle with crypto,” Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, told Decrypt. “For smaller altcoins, ETF inflows aren’t yet big enough to drive price trends.”
“Ripple is one of the biggest institutional players in crypto right now, making acquisitions… and sitting down with global banks and governments,” Altan Tutar, CEO and Co-founder of MoreMarkets, told Decrypt.
He highlighted institutional interest in XRP as Evernorth Holdings merged with Nasdaq-listed SPAC Armada Acquisition Corp II to create a publicly traded XRP treasury platform that aims to raise $1 billion for XRP purchases.
The third catalyst hinges on the evolving U.S. regulatory climate; with U.S. President Trump signing the spending bill that ends the government shutdown, the uncertain outlook has already eased somewhat.
“As the U.S. comes out of government shutdowns, we could definitely see uplifts in XRP prices,” Tutar said. “CLARITY will be back on the agenda and that will be a strong signal to investors to start strategising for the long-term.”
Despite these positive drivers, Otychenko said XRP’s fate is at the behest of overall crypto market sentiment rather than ETF activity alone.
The delicate state of the crypto market is reflected in Myriad’s Fear and Greed prediction market, which is currently hovering around 50% (Disclaimer: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan). The outlook is likely to improve, Otychenko added, considering the reopening of the U.S. government.
