AI Man argues that Hedera’s recent weakness is a classic contrarian buy signal, not a reason to capitulate.
Crypto commentator AI Man, known for his retail‑focused altcoin coverage, is telling Hedera (HBAR) holders that the capitulation they’re seeing in comment sections is exactly the wrong move.
In a recent video, he argues HBAR at roughly $0.10-$0.11 is “extremely oversold” on long‑term price charts & claims the technical setup now resembles the lead‑up to its last major rally, when the token ran about 10x from around $0.04 to $0.40. His core message: rising bearish sentiment is the contrarian signal, not the thesis.
Oversold HBAR Signal: Bold $1-$2 Price Call
The centerpiece of the video is the weekly “all‑time” HBAR chart and its Relative Strength Index (RSI). According to AI Man, the RSI has reached levels seen only three times in Hedera’s history: around the FTX collapse, during the 2024 bear‑market lows, and now.
He describes the current RSI reading as more oversold than in early 2024, before what he says was a rapid move from about $0.04 to $0.40 after Trump’s election win. From that precedent, he extrapolates a 2026 target of $1-$2 per HBAR and predicts “new all‑time highs” this year, framing the present as “the bottom” or close to it.
The video does not address scenarios where the RSI stays low for extended periods or fails as a reversal signal, and leans heavily on past price behavior repeating.
HBAR ETFs & The Supply-Absorbed Hedera Pitch
Beyond charts, AI Man points to new investment vehicles as a structural demand driver. He highlights the Canary Capital HBAR ETF, which he says has purchased about 500 million HBAR — roughly 1% of the 50 billion‑token maximum supply — within just a few months of launch.
He expects additional HBAR products, including a potential Grayscale vehicle and multi‑asset “basket” ETFs, to follow in 2026, though these are presented as personal expectations rather than confirmed launches.
On fundamentals, the video repeats long‑standing Hedera talking points: more than 70 billion transactions processed on mainnet, activity in the same league as Solana and the XRP Ledger, and a governing council that includes global firms like Google, IBM, LG, and T‑Mobile. The argument is that this combination should allow HBAR to “easily” match Solana’s market cap, which he calculates would imply around $1.90 per token.
Why This Matters
The video is unabashedly bullish and openly dismissive of “bears” but it surfaces a few data points worth attention: concentrated ETF accumulation, a historically low long‑term RSI, and the disconnect between on‑chain throughput and current valuation.
For investors, the key takeaway is not the $2 target itself, but the framing: one corner of retail crypto is treating HBAR’s drawdown as a generational entry point, with technicals and ETF flows used to justify a high‑conviction bet that the market has mispriced risk.
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