Experts clash on altcoin potential, with Bitget’s Vugar Usi Zade cautioning that a significant rally lacks solid reasons.
The idea of a major altcoin season has been debated many times over this year, as Bitcoin trades near new highs and analysts look for signs of capital rotation.
Opinions on whether such a period is coming have been very different so far.
Some analysts expect October to deliver the start of a new cycle for altcoins. Others, like Bitget’s chief operating officer, Vugar Usi Zade, say that there is no strong reason why a rally should even happen.
Usi Zade argued at Token2049 in Singapore that the current market conditions do not support a sweeping rise across all altcoins.
“I don’t think we will see an altseason. There is no logical reason behind it,” he said.
According to him, the market has not seen any major technological progress or breakthrough products that would justify a re-rating of altcoin prices. Traders are instead focusing more narrowly on Bitcoin, while many smaller tokens lag.
Historically, altcoins have often climbed alongside Bitcoin during strong bull markets. That pattern appears to be changing, though, as Bitcoin continues to decouple from the rest of the market.
“Bitcoin is its own rally. We have seen many days where Bitcoin is in the green while most other tokens are in the red,” Usi Zade noted.
He expects that market upswings will now center on specific narratives like real-world asset (RWA) tokens, rather than lift the entire altcoin market at once.
Not all market players share this sentiment. Some analysts continue to point to classic indicators that have always come before previous altcoin season phases.
Ito Shimotsuma, for example, notes that Bitcoin dominance has slipped below 59%. A decline in this metric tends to show that capital is moving out of Bitcoin and into alternative tokens.
Google searches for altcoins rose 40-50 percent in late September and the Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 67,. This is a level that is historically linked with early stage altcoin cycles.
Shimotsuma also pointed out that the altcoin market cap has been in its longest accumulation phase on record, even longer than those seen ahead of the rallies in 2017 and 2021.
Such extended periods of consolidation tend to come before sharp breakouts, especially in the fourth quarter (which has historically been strong for altcoins).
Another analyst, known online as Stockmoney Lizards, says that there is a long-term falling wedge pattern in the TOTAL3/BTC chart. For context, this chart tracks the performance of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Similar multi-year wedge patterns have often resolved with strong upside moves once they break out.
The analyst says that even if Bitcoin trades sideways or rises slowly, liquidity could still rotate into altcoins. This could fuel a rally once the technical barrier breaks. This setup is compared to Bitcoin’s own breakout from a wedge pattern in 2020, which marked the start of a major bull run.
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