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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Uh-oh, the bitcoin BTC$66,071.40 price pattern that presaged the final and deepest phases of previous bear markets has appeared again.
In mid-November 2018, CoinDesk discussed a bearish flip in long-term averages on a chart that bundles three days of price action into each candle. It warned that a similar occurrence in 2014 deepened the bear market and, within a week, bitcoin crashed to under $4,500 from $6,000, extending the decline from the peak of roughly $20,000.
Cut to April 2022. The same pattern occurred, with the same result. BTC’s bear market deepened and prices cratered to $17,500 from $32,000, having already dropped from the late 2021 record of nearly $70,000.
Now, the pattern’s back again (check the Technical Analysis section). While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, history calls for caution. Some savvy traders are preparing for a deeper crash below $60,000.
Bitcoin recently traded near $66,100, down 3% in 24 hours. Other major tokens and the CoinDesk 20 Index lost even more. Still, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $1 billion in three days.
“That breadth of demand signals absorption rather than speculation,” Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said in an email. “On-chain data reinforces the shift: wallets holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin have accumulated through the recent pullback from the $70,000 region, suggesting long-term holders are stepping in as supply thins.”
Even so, ETF flows need to persist to lift BTC sustainably higher, Kalchev said.
In traditional markets, oil prices remain supported by U.S.-Iran uncertainty and the potential for an escalation over the weekend. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
