For several days, the crypto market has been closely watching an exceptionally reliable technical pattern. With a historical accuracy of 78%, this pattern could well signal the imminent arrival of a new high for bitcoin. Is the market ready to surpass its previous records?
Data analysis since January 2021 reveals impressive statistics. Out of 19 bullish engulfing formations meeting the strict criteria of technical analysis, 15 have indeed led to new local highs. This 78% performance places this pattern among the most reliable signals in the crypto market.
The validation criteria remain strict. The engulfing candle must absorb at least the two preceding candles. The pattern must emerge at the end of a corrective phase, suggesting a trend reversal. Finally, a clear structure break in the following sessions confirms the bullish momentum.
The recent geopolitical context, notably the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, also contributed to the formation of this pattern. Bitcoin, which had dropped below $100,000 during the tensions, quickly rebounded to around $108,000 once calming was confirmed.
This technical setup fits perfectly within the current bullish market environment. Unlike the four unsuccessful attempts observed during the 2022 bear market, current conditions offer a statistically favorable ground for continued upward movement.
The fundamental structure of the bitcoin market shows striking similarities with that of late 2022. According to Swissblock data, liquidity levels have returned to those of December 2022, a period that preceded a doubling of the price in just three months.
The massive capital absorption is the most remarkable feature of this cycle. Since the November 2022 low of $16,800, bitcoin has attracted more than $544 billion in net inflows. This colossal injection has brought the realized market capitalization to a record level of $944 billion.
This development reflects bitcoin’s growing maturity as a macroeconomic asset. Institutional flows, notably through spot ETFs, continue to support this momentum.
On June 24, American Bitcoin ETFs recorded $588.5 million in inflows, illustrating the persistent appetite of institutional investors.
The current macroeconomic environment reinforces this trend. Jerome Powell recently mentioned the possibility of rate cuts “sooner than expected” if inflation remains moderate. This prospect of monetary easing could favor a capital rotation towards growth assets like bitcoin.
The expiration of $20 billion in Bitcoin options on June 27 adds an immediate strategic dimension. With $11.2 billion in call options versus $8.8 billion in put options, buyers hold a theoretical advantage of $2.1 billion if BTC remains above $106,000.
This technical setup relies on solid fundamentals. Institutional adoption continues with companies like Strategy and Metaplanet strengthening their Bitcoin reserves.
The alignment of technical and fundamental factors outlines a promising horizon for bitcoin. With a proven predictive model and favorable liquidity conditions, the queen of cryptos appears poised to surpass new thresholds before a potential retest of $100,000.
