“As a result of these divisions, the emirate will collapse and end,” he warned.
The speech, made to Taliban members at a madrassa in the southern city of Kandahar in January 2025, was more fuel to the fire of rumours which had been circulating for months – rumours of differences at the very top of the Taliban.
It is a split the Taliban leadership has always denied – including when asked directly by the BBC.
But the rumours prompted the BBC’s Afghan service to begin a year-long investigation into the highly secretive group – conducting more than 100 interviews with current and former members of the Taliban, as well as local sources, experts and former diplomats.
Because of the sensitivity over reporting this story, the BBC has agreed not to identify them for their safety.
Now, for the first time, we have been able to map two distinct groups at the very top of the Taliban – each presenting competing visions for Afghanistan.
One entirely loyal to Akhundzada, who, from his base in Kandahar, is driving the country towards his vision of a strict Islamic Emirate – isolated from the modern world, where religious figures loyal to him control every aspect of society.
And a second, made up of powerful Taliban members largely based in the capital Kabul, advocating for an Afghanistan which – while still following a strict interpretation of Islam – engages with the outside, builds the country’s economy, and even allows girls and women access to an education they are currently denied beyond primary school.
One insider described it as “the Kandahar house versus Kabul”.
But the question was always whether the Kabul group, made up of Taliban cabinet ministers, powerful militants and influential religious scholars commanding the support of thousands of Taliban loyalists, would ever challenge the increasingly authoritarian Akhundzada in any meaningful way, as his speech suggested.
After all, according to the Taliban, Akhundzada is the group’s absolute ruler – a man only accountable to Allah, and not someone to be challenged.
Then came a decision which would see the delicate tug of war between the most powerful men in the country escalate into a clash of wills.
