The self-serving, ambitious members of Congress are identifiable by their ability to shapeshift from one principled stand to another entirely different principled stand, without the inconvenience of actual principles. Such is Elise Stefanik.
After Trump was declared the Republican nominee for the 2016 election, Roll Call reported that
Stefanik, “the independent voice,” didn’t last long. When Trump made it to the White House, Stefanik seamlessly shifted from moderate conservative to sycophantic maga overnight (and the first Trump error was a very long and dark night in US politics).
By mid-May, SBS Australia’s report made it clear that the Trumpification of Stefanik had smothered all traces of conservative independence and bipartisanship.
As Mother Jones’ Washington, DC, Bureau Chief David Corn explained, the mid-May 2021 event was an important internal vote in the House Republican Conference.
The promotion secured greater media exposure for Stefanik, including a position flanking the House Speaker at the podium during live press releases. She may also have scored a larger office and more staff. Congressional leadership positions do typically come with office suites and additional staff, just as losing a leadership role can mean losing those perks. However, it should be noted that this is a general rule of congressional operations, not something documented specifically for Cheney when she lost her position, or Stefanik when she gained hers.
Elise Stefanik reached the pinnacle of her political rise in November 2021, when Trump named her his first Cabinet pick for his second term. Garrett Haake and Rebecca Shabad of NBC News reported the announcement on November 12.
But Stefanik’s elation was short-lived. As The Guardian reported on the 28th March this year,
After rescinding his nomination, Trump stated that Stefanik would rejoin House leadership, demonstrating, for the umpteenth time, that he has no idea how Congress works. Stefanik had relinquished her position as the Republican Conference Chair in January, and by March, all the leadership posts had been filled. The media happily speculated about what role there could be for her.
It took almost a month, but finally, someone unearthed the position of the Chair of House Republican Leadership. It is a role that is typically left unfilled and has been vacant for so long that no publicly available reporting indicates when it was last filled. That it existed was all Mike Johnson needed to know, and he appointed Stefanik to the role on the 11th of April this year.
While Stefanik talked up the grandiosity of the position, it was nevertheless a demotion for her. She retained her office and staff but relinquished the media attention she’d had as the Republican Conference Chair and the elite status she would’ve had as U.S. ambassador to the UN. It had to hurt.
She’d moved down the leadership ladder in the US House to an optional role, a consolation prize, and Stefanik knew the Republican Party would keep her down; there was no longer a pathway to the upper echelons for her, and no longer any chance of an Executive Branch role. So she went looking for another position.
There would not be another election for New York Senator until 2028, so that was out. But New York is scheduled to hold state elections in 2026. Kathy Hochul is not the most popular Governor – certainly not in Elise Stefanik’s circle of friends and donors. The position has the kind of cachet Stefanik wants: a huge, plush office with enviable views, a much larger staff, considerably greater opportunities for media exposure and a great deal more power. It was perfect!
But the tide had already turned against maga candidates. In November state elections, Democrats decimated Republican opponents, with landslide victory margins ranging from 10 to 17 points. More recently, a Democrat won the Miami Mayoral race for the first time in nearly 30 years, crushing her GOP opponent by 19 points. In deep red Kentucky this week, Gary Clemons won the KY Senate District 37 special election in a 42-point swing to Democrats. Democrats have now won or overperformed in 227 of 255 key elections this year — nearly 90%.
It took a while, but this Friday, reality finally burst the bubble of Elise Stefanik’s fantasy plans. Anthony Izaguirre for AP News:
In her statement to the media, Stefanik asserted, “It is not an effective use of our time” to stay in the race, and that she instead wants to spend more time with her young son and family.
But The Bulwark trio – Sarah Longwell, Tim Miller and JVL – who exclaimed, “It’s a Christmas Miracle!” and “Elise Stefanik’s career is over” at the start of the show, disputed Stefanik’s statement.
Whatever her future holds, it won’t be Congress, or an Executive role, or a governorship. Trump effectively ended her political ambitions. When the 119th Congress recesses in December 2026, her career will slump into that dusty pit formed by multitudinous bottoms at the end of the slide.
