The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued a series of “no-action” letters to several prediction market operators, granting them exemptions from certain swap data reporting and record-keeping rules.
In a statement Thursday, the CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk said they will not pursue enforcement actions against the platforms for failing to meet specific record-keeping requirements, so long as they comply with other conditions outlined in the letters.
“The no-action letters apply only in narrow circumstances and mirror similar relief previously granted to other designated contract markets and derivatives clearing organizations,” the agencies said.
Recipients of the relief include Polymarket US, LedgerX, PredictIt, and Gemini Titan, the prediction markets unit of crypto exchange Gemini.
As part of the conditions for avoiding enforcement action, the platforms must fully collateralize all contracts—ensuring each is entirely backed by assets held in reserve—and publish time-and-sales data for every event contract transaction on their websites “after execution of the transactions,” according to the letters.
Prediction markets and event contracts allow users to trade on the outcomes of a wide range of events, from sports results to unconventional subjects like the clothing choices of political figures.
In the U.S., these contracts typically trigger extensive reporting and record-keeping requirements because prediction markets operate as designated contract markets. The new no-action letters, however, ease the immediate enforcement risk associated with failing to meet those obligations.
A no-action letter signals that CFTC staff will not recommend enforcement if a firm falls short of certain regulatory requirements under narrowly defined conditions. The relief does not change existing law, but it is often used to temporarily reduce regulatory exposure while a product or market develops.
Prediction Markets Record a Strong 2025
Prediction markets have surged in popularity this year, with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket routinely reporting billions in monthly trading volume. Kalshi recorded $5.14 billion in volume over the past 30 days, according to DeFi data aggregator DefiLlama, while crypto-based Polymarket posted $1.9 billion over the same period.
New entrants are also moving into the sector. Crypto.com recently launched a prediction marketplace that will integrate with Trump Media, and tech researcher Jane Manchun Wong noted on Nov. 19 that website code suggested Coinbase is developing a similar platform.
