As trading gets underway today, futures are slightly lower. Nvidia is up only modestly in premarket action. Salesforce, by contrast, is down after offering revenue guidance that didn’t calm fears about slowing corporate software spending. Trade Desk and C3.ai plunged after disappointing forecasts. Energy stocks are softer as oil prices wobble ahead of another round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. Treasury yields are easing. The dollar has slipped a bit. Gold remains elevated, a quiet reminder that geopolitical tension never really clocks out.
In short: the market is not in a celebratory mood. This week will test something bigger than a single earnings report: it will test the story. For two years, artificial intelligence has been the dominant narrative in markets. Companies promised vast spending on data centers, chips, and infrastructure. Investors, eager not to miss the next industrial revolution, pushed technology stocks to repeated highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq just closed at two-week highs yesterday, powered largely by megacap tech.
But now the questions are sharper. It’s no longer enough for Nvidia to print eye-popping results. Investors want proof that all this spending on AI infrastructure will translate into durable profits for everyone else.
The skepticism is visible in sector performance. The S&P 500 software and services index has dropped nearly 21% this year. Financial brokerage firms, legal services, real estate services, trucking, and data analytics companies have all taken hits as investors worry that AI won’t just create winners, it will also disrupt incumbents. Salesforce’s softer guidance reinforced that anxiety. When a giant in enterprise software struggles to persuade investors that AI is a tailwind rather than a threat, people notice.
Markets are moving from believing in potential to demanding monetization. That shift explains why money has gravitated toward the tangible side of the AI boom: chipmakers, data-center equipment suppliers, power infrastructure companies, utilities, and even basic materials producers. If AI requires massive physical buildouts, then concrete, copper, and electricity look safer than speculative software promises.
Meanwhile, today’s session won’t revolve around tech alone. Weekly jobless claims came roughly in line with expectations today. Producer price data arrives tomorrow, shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has already warned that tensions between the White House and the Fed risk eroding trust in the central bank’s independence, which is not exactly the sort of comment that calms nerves.
Talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva are drawing attention, especially after Donald Trump deployed combat jets to Israel as a precaution. Oil markets are trying to balance diplomatic hope against supply risks. Gold traders are watching closely; the metal remains above $5,100 a troy ounce, a level that suggests investors still value insurance against shocks.
The broader mood this February has been choppy. Indexes have swung sharply between gains and losses as investors oscillate between excitement about AI’s potential and anxiety about its side effects. Bitcoin dipped despite Nvidia’s strong report, underscoring how closely speculative assets remain tied to tech sentiment.
Today’s economic highlights:
On today’s agenda: ECB President Lagarde’s speech and economic sentiment in the Euro Area; in Italy, business and consumer confidence; in Spain, business confidence; in China, YTD FDI YoY; in the United States, initial jobless claims followed by Bowman’s speech; in Canada, the current account. See the full calendar here.
