AUSTIN — Buttressed by capacity increases in solar and largescale batteries, ERCOT officials predict the lowest chance of power supply emergencies in years.
ERCOT’s meteorologist predicts a hot summer — possibly among the top 10 hottest on record — this year with record-breaking demands. North Texas is expected to see its first 100-degree day of the year this weekend.
But the state of the power grid is strong and ready for the demand, said Pablo Vegas, CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
“Because of the contributions of the new resources that we’re seeing on the grid, our continued conservative operations and reliable management of the grid, all of that is contributing to those benefits,” Vegas said during a meeting of ERCOT’s board Tuesday.
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Last year, the power grid operator predicted that during hours where power use remains high after the sun goes down, the grid would have a 16% chance of entering a power demand emergency. This year, ERCOT predicts a 0.5% chance of having an emergency during the same hours.
“That does put us in a better position to get over those evening ramps as we go into late summer,” said Kristi Hobbs, ERCOT’s vice president of system planning and weatherization.
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The amount of battery storage and solar power generation on the state’s stand-alone power grid boomed over the past two years. Battery storage increased its capacity fourfold while the amount of solar generation doubled and now rivals wind power.
The state saw record shattering levels of renewable generation on the ERCOT grid.
In June, that record was broken three times, including on Saturday when solar and wind combined to produce 47 gigawatts of power — enough to meet far more than half of the state’s demand.
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The record at this time last year for renewable generation was about 38 gigawatts of power, according to data from Gridstatus.io.
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The sharp decrease in chances for grid emergencies also is due in part to changes in how ERCOT projects demand. Staff at the agency previously relied on metrics that many believed were unrealistic. It was based on a state law that forced ERCOT to count all potential new projects in demand projections.
Lawmakers passed a law this year that they hope will make those projections more accurate.
It will be hot and dry this summer, ERCOT meteorologist Chris Coleman predicted, and the hurricane season will be less active than last year. Hurricane Beryl made landfall near Houston in July 2024, knocking out power to 2.7 million homes and businesses for a week.
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But Coleman said the chances of a hurricane hitting Texas this year remain elevated because of escalated water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, which can increase how quickly and intensely hurricanes can develop.
“It’s maybe a little greater than average potential because the Gulf is running very warm,” Coleman said. “Last year, the Gulf was at record levels, and it’s only slightly below that.”
In North Texas, Coleman predicted average temperatures akin to what the region saw in 2012 – the 17th hottest summer on record. Coleman noted that increasing overall temperatures have driven up what ERCOT forecasters consider normal.
“What we now consider normal, that bar keeps going up,” he said.
Read more on The Dallas Morning News
