Historical data links Tether issuance with Bitcoin rallies, and Q4 trends suggest strong upside potential if liquidity is deployed.
In the final week of September, many traders faced heavy liquidation losses as nearly $200 billion in market capitalization was wiped out. However, this shock seemed to trigger renewed demand. Fresh data on USDT circulation points to significant buying potential.
Tether accelerated its USDT printing in September, pushing its market capitalization to a new record. At the same time, the volume of USDT deposited on exchanges also rose.
Today, Whale Alert reported that Tether minted an additional 1 billion USDT. Earlier this week, when market capitalization dropped by almost $200 billion, Tether issued another 1 billion USDT.
Lookonchain highlighted that Tether’s minting activity surged in September, driving its market capitalization to over $173 billion.
“Prices are down, but Tether is printing out fresh USDT. New mints have surged in the last few days-to-weeks,” analyst Maartunn reported.
This constant issuance indicates demand for USDT remains strong despite market corrections. It may also reflect investors’ strategy of waiting for better price levels to buy in.
Data from CryptoQuant reinforces this outlook with two key points.
First, USDT (ERC-20) reserves on exchanges climbed from 43 billion USDT to 48 billion USDT in September, an all-time high. A growing balance of USDT on exchanges signals readiness to deploy liquidity when traders spot opportunities in price swings.
Second, USDT netflow reached a new high in September after steadily climbing since April. Netflow measures the difference between inflows and outflows. A strongly positive netflow means more USDT is moving onto exchanges than leaving them.
Historical data also shows that Tether’s periods of accelerated issuance often preceded major Bitcoin rallies, as seen in early 2023 and late 2024.
“They have minted 8 billion USDT this month alone, and there are still 5 days left. I think big whales are getting ready with huge liquidity to buy dips before a big rally,” investor BitBull predicted.
Market statistics add weight to this view. Over the past decade, October has consistently been Bitcoin’s best-performing month, with an average gain of 21.9%. Q4 also stands out as the strongest quarter, with an average return of 85.4%.
The key uncertainty lies in timing — when investors will deploy their USDT balances on exchanges to buy Bitcoin and altcoins. Yet, the “gunpowder” is loaded and could ignite at any moment if a strong catalyst emerges.
