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Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, warned late last month that Tether’s shift into Bitcoin and gold could leave the stablecoin exposed if those assets tumble.
According to Hayes, a roughly 30% drop in Tether’s BTC and gold holdings could erase the company’s equity and leave USDT vulnerable.
His comments touched off fresh debate about how much of the company’s true financial strength is visible to the market.
A former Citi research lead, who goes by the name “Joseph”, pushed back on Hayes’s scenario. Based on reports, Joseph said public attestations only show the assets that directly back outstanding USDT and do not capture the full corporate balance sheet.
He told reporters he spent hundreds of hours reviewing filings and market data and estimates Tether’s total equity could be in the $50-$100 billion range — a cushion much larger than what critics point to when they focus on attested reserves.
According to Joseph’s calculations, Tether holds about $120 billion in US Treasuries that are earning roughly 4%, which he says could generate about $10 billion a year in net income.
He also cited other corporate assets that are not part of public reserve snapshots — equity stakes, mining operations, and additional Bitcoin holdings — all of which, he argues, strengthen Tether’s overall capital position.
Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s CEO, has publicly cited roughly $30 billion in “group equity” as part of the firm’s buffer against shocks.
Hayes’s point, however, rests on a simple math worry: volatile assets can move fast, and marked declines would reduce the value of reserves.
He framed Tether’s move into Bitcoin and gold as a macro hedge against expected rate cuts, but said that hedge could backfire under a sharp sell-off.
Reports have noted that because attestations focus on backing for USDT supply, they may not reveal how much of the company’s other assets would be available in a crisis — a gap that keeps some investors uneasy.
The clash highlights two facts. One: there are sizable numbers involved — $120 billion in Treasuries, a roughly $30 billion equity figure cited by management, and the $50-$100 billion range estimated by Joseph.
Two: the core issue is disclosure. If Tether’s broader holdings can be marshalled quickly in a stress event, the company may handle big swings. If not, volatility could create trouble for short-term liquidity even if long-term equity is large.
