Following the early sales of the Nintendo Switch 2 console (the new gaming hardware sold over 3.5 million units in the first four days and is said to be selling twice as fast as the original Switch), gaming market analysis firm DFC Intelligence has slightly bumped its original forecast for 2025:
The Nintendo Switch 2 is now the key driver of industry growth for 2025. DFC has increased its forecast for Switch 2 unit sales from 15 million to 16 million. If manufacturing could meet demand, the Switch 2 could sell as many as 20 million units, but DFC considers this unlikely as Nintendo is expected to take a conservative approach to inventory.
Reflecting its historically conservative approach to new product forecasting, Nintendo is estimating sales of 15 million Switch 2 units through the end of its fiscal year in March 2026. When the original Switch launched in March 2017, Nintendo initially projected 10 million units for the fiscal year but ultimately sold 15 million units in that period. Based on that track record, the fact that Nintendo is forecasting a 15 million unit number gives us confidence that they will be able to ramp up supply and navigate tariff challenges.
The long-term forecast hasn’t changed. DFC Intelligence still forecasts that the Nintendo Switch 2 could sell as many as a hundred million units by the end of 2029, which would make it by far the leader in the console market for this generation. They also still believe Nintendo is trying to become more of a primary partner for third-party publishers, in contrast to its previous positioning as a separate player from Sony’s PlayStation and Microsoft’s Xbox.
When it comes to the overall industry, both the Nintendo Switch 2 and GTA VI from next year should help set new hardware and software sales records between 2026 and 2029, as seen in the chart above.
