A small cluster of crypto wallets generated more than $1.2 million in profits by wagering on a Polymarket contract tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi trading platform Axiom, raising renewed concerns that prediction markets may reward participants with advance knowledge of market-moving revelations.
Trading data compiled on Dune shows that the eight most profitable wallets collectively earned around $1.2 million. In contrast, more than 50 wallets recorded combined losses of roughly $1.23 million, while two addresses alone lost about $366,000.
According to onchain researcher Defioasis, eight of the top 10 earning wallets appear to be insider-linked based on transaction behavior. “There are three addresses that achieved profits exceeding $100,000, all of which are insider addresses that traded only this single market,” the researcher wrote in a Friday post on X.
The bets were tied to an exposé by crypto investigator ZachXBT concerning Axiom.
ZachXBT published the highly anticipated report on Thursday, alleging that Broox Bauer, an employee of Axiom, along with others, had engaged in insider trading since early 2025.
In response to the revelation, Axiom Exchange said it was “shocked and disappointed” by the report and has revoked access to the internal tools that were allegedly misused, pledging to investigate further.
Prediction markets under scrutiny
Concerns about insider trading in prediction markets have heightened following other high-profile wagers, including a Polymarket contract in early January in which a user made roughly $400,000 by correctly betting on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before a US military operation unfolded.
That incident, along with the recent Axiom-linked bets, has drawn attention from lawmakers. US legislators have proposed measures aimed at limiting trading in political prediction markets by government officials, adding regulatory pressure on the sector.
Regulatory pressure on Polymarket
Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market, has also faced growing regulatory action in multiple countries over concerns that its services amount to unlicensed gambling. European regulators in Hungary and Portugal blocked access to the platform earlier this year, citing gambling law violations, and several other jurisdictions — including France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, and Switzerland — have previously restricted or banned the platform for similar reasons.
