Support for Fianna Fáil has slumped while Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s personal rating has fallen by 11 percentage points to its lowest level in more than five years, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll.
As the presidential election campaign intensifies in advance of polling day next Friday, the political fallout from the withdrawal of Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin, and the commanding lead enjoyed by left-wing candidate Catherine Connolly, is continuing.
Support for Sinn Féin has jumped, while Mary Lou McDonald is now the most popular party leader.
The state of the parties, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is: Fianna Fáil on 17 per cent (down five), Sinn Féin on 27 per cent (up five), and Fine Gael on 18 per cent (up one).
Among the smaller parties, the Social Democrats are at 5 per cent (down one), Labour is on 6 per cent (up two), the Green Party is at 3 per cent (no change), People Before Profit-Solidarity is on 2 per cent (no change), Aontú is on 3 per cent (up one) and Independent Ireland is on 2 per cent.
Independents/others are at 17 per cent. This is the first poll that Independent Ireland support has been separated out from Independents and others. The comparisons are with the most recent Irish Times/Ipsos poll in July.
Undecided voters – who are excluded from the above figures – are at 23 per cent, a decline of 2 points since July.
Satisfaction with the Government is down by 5 points to 31 per cent. But the most significant movement is for the Fianna Fáil leader; Mr Martin sees his satisfaction rating plummet by 11 points to 33 per cent, his lowest rating since early 2020.
The Fine Gael leader Simon Harris sees his rating drop by three points to 35 per cent, while Ms McDonald increases by three points to 39 per cent.
There is some consolation for Mr Martin when respondents were asked if he should have resigned after Mr Gavin ceased his presidential campaign. A clear majority (51 per cent) said he should not have resigned, while less than a third of voters (32 per cent) said he should have gone.
Mr Martin is strongly backed by Fianna Fáil voters, 79 per cent of whom said he should not resign.
Voters are also overwhelmingly convinced that the Republic is going in the wrong direction. Just 35 per cent said the State is “generally moving in the right direction”. That is down seven points since the question was last asked a year ago, while 55 per cent said things are going in the wrong direction, an increase of 5 points.
The figures mean combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, at 35 per cent, is at a historic low.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 120 sampling points throughout all constituencies.
Unlike most other opinion polls, The Irish Times/Ipsos B&A series is conducted through face-to-face sampling. Personal in-home interviewing took place on October 12th, 13th and 14th. There were 1,200 interviews conducted and the accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
