Most crypto projects are unlikely to sustain long-term development because they’re locked in a cycle of chasing fresh narratives to keep investors interested, according to Rosie Sargsian, head of growth at Ten Protocol.
In a Saturday post on X titled “Why Crypto Can’t Build Anything Long-Term,” Sargsian argued that many crypto founders lack conviction, often abandoning their projects at the first sign of difficulty.
“Traditional business advice says: don’t fall for the sunk cost fallacy — if something isn’t working, pivot. Crypto took that idea and turned it into sunk-cost-maxxing,” she wrote, adding:
“Now nobody stays with anything long enough to know if it works. First sign of resistance: pivot. Slow user growth: pivot. Fundraising getting hard: pivot.”
Crypto’s 18-Month Product Cycle
Sargsian described what she sees as an 18-month product cycle in crypto — a rapid loop where a new narrative takes hold, capital floods in, and founders rush to pivot toward the latest trend.
According to her, the cycle typically builds momentum over six to nine months before enthusiasm fades, leaving founders scrambling for the next pivot.
“This cycle used to last three to four years during the ICO era, then shrank to two. Now it’s just 18 months — if you’re lucky,” she noted. “Crypto venture funding dropped nearly 60% in a single quarter (Q2 2025), cutting down the time and capital founders have to build before they’re pushed into chasing the next big thing.”
Sargsian emphasized that the issue isn’t necessarily with founders themselves — they’re simply “playing the game correctly.” The problem, she said, is that “the game itself” is designed in a way that prevents meaningful, long-term development.
“You can’t build anything substantial in 18 months,” she argued. “Real infrastructure takes three to five years, and achieving true product-market fit requires consistent iteration over years — not just a few quarters.”
“But if you are still working on last year’s narrative, you’re dead money. Investors ghost you. Users leave. Some investors even force you to catch the current narrative. And your team starts interviewing at whatever project just raised on this quarter’s hot narrative.”
Hurdles to Long-Term Thinking
A major challenge, Sargsian noted, is figuring out how to keep users engaged after the initial hype fades. Many crypto sectors — NFTs, for instance — tend to move in dramatic boom-and-bust cycles.
Token launches and airdrops have become standard tactics to attract early adopters, but without thoughtful design and long-term incentives, they often backfire — leading to early investors cashing out as soon as the token hits the market and abandoning the project altogether.
In response to Sargsian’s post, Sean Lippel, general partner at venture capital firm FinTech Collective, agreed with her assessment but added that some founders and investors may actually prefer it this way — avoiding solutions that encourage genuine long-term thinking.
“A group of investors, operators, and D.C. influencers looked at me like I’d lost my mind at a recent industry dinner when I said I supported A16z’s proposal for 5+ year token vesting under new market structure legislation,” he said, calling it “insane how many founders I’ve seen get rich without building anything with lasting value in crypto.”
