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Strategy soon to be ejected from the MSCI USA and Nasdaq 100?

Last updated: November 25, 2025 5:00 pm
Published: 5 months ago
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It threatens to derail Michael Saylor’s well-oiled machine. Strategy, arguably the company most exposed to the current cryptocurrency slump, is facing a danger: exclusion from the benchmark indices (MSCI USA, Nasdaq 100) that cemented its place in mainstream portfolios.

If the axe falls – a decision is expected by January 15 – the consequences will be immediate and brutal. In a widely discussed note, JPMorgan analysts warn: removal from the MSCI index could automatically trigger $2.8bn in capital outflows. Add to that the domino effect if other index providers follow suit, and nearly $9bn in exposure via passive funds could evaporate.

For a company that built its meteoric rise by “wrapping” bitcoin into a listed stock, the stakes go far beyond mere liquidity. Exclusion would be a stab at its institutional credibility.

The success of Strategy was built on a simple, almost magical loop: sell shares, buy bitcoin, ride the bull rally, and repeat. At the height of its glory, the company’s market capitalization soared well above the actual value of its bitcoin holdings.

The company’s valuation now flirts with the bare value of its crypto reserves. The mNAV ratio (enterprise value to bitcoin holdings) has collapsed to just above 1.1. The message from investors is clear: belief is fading. The loop – finance => buy => appreciate => refinance – is no longer running at full speed. Article that explains the mNAV ratio in detail: Crypto companies face the fatal trap of Bitcoin.

An identity crisis: Company or Fund?

As recently as September, optimists were betting on Strategy entering the S&P 500. Everything seemed on track: market cap, profitability, liquidity.

But behind the scenes, the very definition of the company is causing problems. In a note dated October 10, MSCI dropped a bombshell: companies whose digital assets account for 50% or more of their total assets could be reclassified. They look more like investment funds… and funds are not eligible for indices. While MSCI does not officially “speculate” on future changes, the threat of a rule overhaul looms.

Strategy’s share price has plummeted over 60% since its record last November, erasing the premium that made it the darling of “momentum” traders.

However, stress is now spreading to new financing vehicles:

The moment of truth

Inclusion in indices is an invisible driver of modern markets, channeling trillions of dollars and offering silent legitimacy. However, when the narrative breaks down, that same mechanism amplifies the fall.

With bitcoin down over 30% since its October peak and the crypto market losing $1 trillion in value, things are starting to hurt. Strategy defined the “digital asset treasury” model — a directory that is now showing its limitations. This story is not about “pro-bitcoin” versus “anti-bitcoin.” It’s about the gravity of index flows versus the weightlessness of a narrative. For four years, Strategy showed that you could turn a ticker into a proxy for bitcoin — and capture the magic of the rally. The question is now the opposite: can it remain a proxy for bitcoin and survive the administrative reality of indices, the rise in the cost of capital, and the mood of investors who are no longer paying for the promise? All this in a world where Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been capturing increasing flows since 2024.

If the exclusion is confirmed, Strategy will lose more than just flows: it will lose the institutional buffer that made its strategy possible on a large scale. If it stays, it will be at the cost of regaining trust — and re-anchoring its model.

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