Macquarie strategists are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up for the week ending September 5. Image by Aleksandra Zhilenkova via iStock
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending September 5.
“This follows a 2.4 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing looser than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s balance, from refineries, we model a slight reduction in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we also model a slight decrease, with exports (-0.6 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.7 million barrels per day) lower on a nominal basis,” they added.
Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance, the Macquarie strategists warned in the report.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a slight increase (+0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week,” they said.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a similar increase (+0.5 MM BBL) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report that, “among products”, they “look for a small gasoline draw (-0.6 million barrels) with builds in distillate (+3.3 million barrels) and jet (+1.2 million barrels)”.
“Amidst holiday effects, we model implied demand for these three products at ~13.9 million barrels per day for the week ending September 5,” the strategists said in the report.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on September 4 and included data for the week ending August 29, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 2.4 million barrels from the week ending August 22 to the week ending August 29.
The EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 420.7 million barrels on August 29, 418.3 million barrels on August 22, and 418.3 million barrels on August 30, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 404.7 million barrels on August 29, 404.2 million barrels on August 22, and 379.7 million barrels on August 29, 2024, the report highlighted.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.670 billion barrels on August 29, according to the report. Total petroleum stocks were up 7.6 million barrels week on week and up 20.6 million barrels year on year, the report showed.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on September 5, Li Xing, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, said, “sentiment deteriorated following the latest report from the Energy Information Administration, which revealed an unexpected 2.4 million barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories”.
“This directly contradicted analyst forecasts for a 1.8 million barrel draw and bolstered the case for weakening domestic demand,” Xing added.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on September 2, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending August 29.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on September 10. It will include data for the week ending September 5.
The report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products. On its website, the EIA notes that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
