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Bitcoin has bounced back from a sell-off last week, climbing after a $9 billion earthquake.
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The bitcoin price dropped to around $115,000 per bitcoin last week but has rebounded to touch $120,000, propelling the combined crypto market to back over $4 trillion and helped by U.S. president Donald Trump issuing a huge crypto prediction.
Now, as Elon Musk’s SpaceX sets bitcoin alarm bells ringing, analysts are predicting the wild bitcoin price swings that have rocked the market in recent years could be over.
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“The days of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over,” Mitchell Askew, a bitcoin analyst with the bitcoin miner Blockware, posted to X, echoing CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju who believes the bitcoin four-year cycle theory “is dead.”
However, Askew also predicted that the bitcoin price will soar to $1 million over the next 10 years as it switches between “pump” and “consolidate” phases, adding: “It will bore everyone to death along the way and shake the tourists out of their positions. Strap in.”
Historically, the bitcoin price has climbed to all-time highs in the years following a bitcoin halving that sees the number of new bitcoin issued to miners in exchange for maintaining the network cut by half.
Bitcoin saw significant price surges in the second halves of 2017 and 2021, following halvings that occurred in 2016 and 2020. Bitcoin’s last halving, cutting the bitcoin block reward to 3.125 bitcoins per block, happened in April 2024.
Others have also said they believe the so-called four-year bitcoin price cycle is over, pointing to the huge accumulation of bitcoin over the last few years by first Michael Saylor’s Strategy then by bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers led by BlackRock
Strategy now controls 600,000 bitcoin worth $72 billion, sparking a flood of copy cat companies who are buying bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, while the combined bitcoin ETF issuers now hold 1.5 million bitcoin worth $175 billion.
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“The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it,” Kyle Chassé, a bitcoin and crypto commentator, posted to X alongside a video he appeared in with Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.
“The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic “four-year cycle” forces, to the extent those exist, and that 2026 will be a good year,” Hougan said in the clip.
“I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” Hougan added. “I could be wrong, and I’m certain there will be significant volatility.”
Other analysts have though pointed to the possibility of unexpected events as either boosting or crashing the bitcoin price — something they warn could happen at any time.
“This fifth bitcoin bull market has been characterized by bursts of momentum and sudden pauses, rather than a steady, high sharpe ratio climb,” Markus Thielen, the chief executive of bitcoin price and crypto analysis company 10x Research, said in an emailed note.
“Each move has hinged on a clear catalyst: Fed rate expectations, Trump’s political traction, ETF breakthroughs, or regulatory interventions, such as the dismantling of crypto-friendly banks. That’s why staying laser-focused on macro triggers and reacting quickly to breakouts remains critical. In crypto, momentum is sparked by events, not driven by the calendar.”
