This week’s producer-price index and consumer-price index will shed some light on the state of inflation.
U.S. stock-market futures gained Sunday, as investors await key inflation reports later this week.
After initially slipping about 0.1%, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) were last up about 66 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures (ES00) and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) also reversed early losses and were in positive territory. Gold prices (GC00) declined, while bitcoin (BTCUSD) dipped below $111,000 slightly and the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY rose.
After falling about 3% last week, oil prices (CL.1) inched higher after OPEC+ agreed Sunday to increase oil production in October, maintaining its months-long output boost in an effort to regain market share at the expense of lower prices.
“We expect a restrained negative market reaction, given an earlier sell-off into the weekend” and the market’s skepticism about the ability of certain members of OPEC+ to reach the higher production targets, Jefferies analysts said in a note Sunday.
Stocks fell Friday, after a weaker-than-expected jobs report. For the week, the S&P 500 SPX inched up 0.3% while the technology-heavy Nasdaq COMP gained 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA lost 0.3% for its second straight weekly decline.
Investors will be looking at key inflation data this coming week, with the August producer-price index coming Wednesday and August’s consumer-price index on Thursday, as well as jobs-data revisions expected Thursday. Most attention will be focused on the core CPI numbers, and whether they indicate more widespread price pressures.
Wall Street has largely priced in a September rate cut by the Fed, but this week’s inflation data could shape expectations for future cuts, as the effects of the Trump administration’s tariffs make their way through the economy.
Read more: Stock-market bulls are banking on rate cuts – CPI inflation data will have much to say about what comes next
On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denied that the tariffs are effectively a tax on consumers and dismissed reports that tariffs are hurting the bottom lines for some big U.S. companies. While he said he was confident that the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs as legal, Bessent warned that if they are overturned, the U.S. will have to issue massive rebates, “which would be terrible for the treasury,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
-Mike Murphy
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