Oversold to oblivion? Initial ascending setup fails for XLM: are bulls coming back to restore lost thresholds?
The OG altcoin Stellar (XLM) has just hit a critical low in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), hitting ultra-oversold territory. This hasn’t happened since 2015 – last time a similar setup occurred back in mid 2024, when Stellar (XLM) shot up to $0.40.
Decade-Low RSI: Great Opportunity Or Bull Bait?
Presently, the OG altcoin is holding the $0.158 support area, but last month’s XLM price performance has been nothing short of brutal. Stellar’s 30% downturn in 30 days paints a picture of rising fear among retail market participants, while big-time players remain conflicted on their sentiment.
The current RSI decade-low also falls in line with the ascending triangle on XLM’s weekly price chart. This levels XLM’s bulls lots of area to rebound with the lower major demand territory lying at $0.11, but other on-chain metrics showcase the odds of a downswing to the $0.11 area are far more probable before a $0.40 reclaim.
For one, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) was flashing severely negative figures in the red department, holding nearly -29. To compare, the same meter for bullish positions read 14, hinting at crypto bears (short-sellers) having twice as much power as Stellar’s (XLM) bulls at the current moment of time.
XLM Bulls Outnumbered, Spot Decides Direction!
On the speculative side of the markets, Stellar’s bulls have switched into negative territory after Monday’s slight rebound. Indeed, Futures traders in belief that XLM’s price will go higher in the near-term are now outnumbered 0.82 to 1, according to the long versus short position ratio from CoinGlass.
On the other hand, Stellar’s (XLM) speculative interest on leveraged markets doesn’t capture much of the altcoin’s market capitalization, which puts the decisive directional move into the Spot market-trading crypto whale’s hands.
On The Flipside
* Counting from the cycle low, Stellar Lumen’s (XLM) current price is 127% up.
* During the FTX-infused late 2022 downswing, XLM was priced at just $0.07.
Why This Matters
Stellar Lumens is among the select altcoins qualifying for the utility-driven 2026 super-cycle narrative due to SWIFT’s ISO 20022 global money standard & clearer crypto regulation overall.
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