Today we will touch upon such type of analysis as seasonal patterns in Bitcoin
Bitcoin seasonality is cyclical patterns in its price dynamics, repeating in certain calendar periods (months, weeks, days). These patterns are formed under the influence of many factors:
1. Halving
Historically, Bitcoin’s four-year cycles tied to halvings (halvings of the mining reward) have been a key driver of price highs. Bullish rallies peaked approximately 1060 days after the previous cycle bottom.
At the same time, changes have already begun to occur in these statistics:
K33 Research notes that the impact of halvings on the Bitcoin price has significantly decreased:
– Bitcoin is increasingly responsive to global macroeconomic factors such as inflationary pressure, geopolitical tensions, and monetary policy (especially the US Federal Reserve). This pushes purely internal factors, such as halving, into the background
– K33 Research characterizes Bitcoin as a transition from a “speculative reflexive asset” to a more established “reactionary store of value”
2. Macroeconomic events (changes in interest rates, inflation)
It is necessary to remember that Bitcoin is not a defensive asset, as some call it, but belongs to the category of risk-on assets.
Therefore, it, like rice assets, is affected by inflation and interest rates, primarily in the US.
Since the price of risky assets is very strongly influenced by the Fed’s policy, very strong fluctuations will occur not even on the fact of changing interest rates from the Central Bank, but on the outgoing macroeconomic indicators, which, in the opinion of market participants, the Central Bank (the Fed, the ECB, etc.) will look at.
3. Institutional activity.
The creation of Bitcoin ETFs is beginning to have a strong impact on the BTC spot market. For example, by the third quarter of 2025, American Bitcoin ETFs attracted $118 billion inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT alone manages assets worth $50 billion
Corporations have begun to buy cryptocurrency: MicroStrategy and Tesla.
4. News related exclusively to the cryptocurrency market and transactions with them. For example, network updates.
Now we move on to statistical models:
The strongest months in Bitcoin: March, October
Weak months: August and September
This does not mean that every code the market will grow in March and October, and fall in August. This note can help in combination with other types of analysis.
Best days for Long:
February 1, February 14, March 26, September 22, October 29, November 29
Best days for Short:
February 13, April 17, June 18, July 5, August 2, October 2
Also note that these are average statistics. At the very least, it is necessary to know them.
5. Flow of funds within the cryptocurrency market:
Bitcoin, as the main cryptocurrency, dominates at the beginning of the bull market, then capital moves to altcoins
What we have now:
Santiment draws attention to the ongoing outflows from spot BTC ETFs*
According to the infographic from Glassnode, the peak may already be reached in this cycle (Bitcoin Halving Rallies)*
We have additionally published additional infographics, including from Glassnode and Sentiment, on our Telegram.
We also pointed out in another post about the S&P500 that statistically we are entering a weak period.
