Standard Chartered has sharply lowered its 2026 crypto price forecasts, and XRP took the biggest hit.
The bank’s digital assets research team, led by Geoff Kendrick, now expects XRP to reach $2.8 by the end of 2026, down from a previous projection of $8, a 65% reduction.
Why the Outlook Changed
According to the research note, the downgrade reflects a combination of institutional flow data and macroeconomic pressure rather than a collapse in long-term fundamentals.
1. ETF Outflows Raise Concerns
Initial enthusiasm surrounding the approval of Spot XRP ETFs in late 2025 has faded. Persistent outflows from these funds suggest institutional capital is not accumulating at the pace originally anticipated.
The bank noted that so-called “sticky” capital has failed to materialize in meaningful size, undermining earlier supercycle assumptions.
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds
A strong U.S. dollar and a prolonged higher-for-longer interest rate environment continue to weigh on risk appetite. In this backdrop, non-yielding digital assets, particularly altcoins, face structural pressure.
3. Broader Sector Revisions
XRP was not singled out. Standard Chartered also revised down its 2026 targets for other major assets:
* Bitcoin (BTC): Cut from $250,000 to $180,000 (-28%)
* Ethereum (ETH): Cut from $14,000 to $9,500 (-32%)
The adjustments signal a more conservative macro-aligned framework rather than a project-specific downgrade.
Near-Term Risk Warning
The bank warned of potential near-term downside as markets adjust to the revised outlook. Analysts highlighted the $1.30-$1.40 support zone for XRP as a critical technical area in the coming weeks.
In the research note, Standard Chartered stated:
“While the long-term utility of Ripple’s payments network remains intact, the velocity of institutional adoption via public ETFs has failed to meet the ‘supercycle’ expectations set earlier this year.”
The commentary suggests that the bank continues to recognize Ripple’s infrastructure relevance but now expects adoption to unfold more gradually than previously modeled.
Revised 2026 Targets Overview
The revisions reflect recalibrated expectations rather than a fundamental shift in long-term viability. However, the magnitude of the XRP downgrade signals that institutional forecasts are becoming more grounded in current liquidity and macro realities.
The key question now is whether ETF flows and broader market conditions can stabilize enough to support even these reduced targets over the coming cycle.
