This chart visualises a powerful relationship — stablecoin dominance (USDT.D + USDC.D) versus OTHERS dominance (i.e. altcoins excluding BTC and ETH).
Put simply:
When this chart moves down, stablecoins are flowing into altcoins — risk-on behavior, altseason ignites.
When it moves up, capital rotates back into stables — risk-off behavior, weakness across alts.
This has nailed every major altseason impulse and correction cycle over the past few years.
Right now, we’re seeing this pair push higher into a key supply zone — the same distribution range it previously broke down from. My expectation is a retest of that breakdown zone, which should align with a short-term correction in the altcoin market.
📉 Once this retest plays out and we see signs of weakness at supply, I anticipate continuation bearish in this pair — leading to stablecoins flowing back into altcoins.
That next leg down into higher time frame demand could mark the final altseason push, before the broader market tops out. If we follow the usual cycle pattern, that last alt impulse will likely drag retail back in for the top — just before distribution takes over and the bear phase begins.
🧠 In short:
Push into supply → altcoin correction
Breakdown → capital rotation back into alts
Final altseason + market top → bottoming of this chart + reversal bullish
This will be a key chart I’ll track closely over the next few months — it offers one of the cleanest reads on altcoin liquidity flow and timing for top formation.
1W:
