Has the S&P 500 index made its annual peak at 6,700 points? This is the legitimate question technical analysts are asking after the market reached the upper part of a long-term bullish channel last week. The valuation of the S&P 500 has surpassed its late 2021 highs, and the market seems to have reached the end of a bullish rally that began last April.
1. It is logical that the market entered a technical pause after reaching a major target (6,700 points)
In an analysis published on TradingView in mid-September, we highlighted the presence of a medium/long-term bullish channel on the S&P 500. This channel passes around 6,700 points, which was also the median price target of financial analysts for 2025.
The 6,700-point level was therefore both a technical and a fundamental target, so it is logical that this resistance triggered a pause in the S&P 500.
However, it is still far too early to speak of the end of the long-term bullish trend, even if the market enters a short-term correction. The first chart below shows this bullish channel acting as resistance, but it also shows that there is currently no bearish price/momentum divergence (with momentum represented here by the RSI).
2. Market sentiment analysis still does not display the characteristics of a final top
Market tops are always built during phases of retail investor euphoria, while bottoms occur during phases of extreme fear. The latest sentiment survey by the American Association of Individual Investors shows that there is still a balance between buyers and sellers, despite the strong bullish phase between April and September. Here too, the characteristics of a final annual market top are not present, even if a short-term correction is legitimate.
3. Quantitative analysis also does not indicate the end of a long-term bullish trend
It is therefore too early to claim that this upper channel boundary is the final peak of 2025. This is also the message conveyed by quantitative market analysis, which shows that US equities (S&P 500 components) are not in an extreme overheating zone overall. In fact, only 55% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day simple moving average, and the market has not recently entered a phase of excessive bullishness.
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