South Korea is set to overtake Japan as the top destination for Chinese travelers during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, marking a significant shift in travel preferences. This change is driven by a combination of factors, including South Korea’s relaxed visa policies, favorable exchange rates, and the global popularity of K-culture, which have made it an increasingly attractive option. Meanwhile, Japan is facing a sharp decline in Chinese tourists due to escalating political tensions, safety concerns, and the weakening appeal of its currency. As a result, South Korea is poised to see a major influx of visitors this year, surpassing Japan for the first time since the pandemic.
Booking estimates and flight data reveal that South Korea is set to surpass Japan as the leading destination for Chinese travelers during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, marking a significant shift since the Covid-19 pandemic. This change in travel preferences highlights the influence of multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, exchange rates, and evolving tourist behavior.
Between 230,000 and 250,000 visitors from mainland China are expected to arrive in South Korea during the nine-day holiday, which begins on February 15. This represents an increase of up to 52% compared to the previous year’s holiday, which was one day shorter. This surge contrasts with Japan, which has historically been a favorite for Chinese tourists due to the favorable yen exchange rate. Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan are anticipated to fall by as much as 60% compared to last year’s holiday, according to market analysis.
Several factors are driving this shift. Diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo have been escalating, making Japan less appealing for Chinese tourists. South Korea, on the other hand, has taken proactive steps to attract Chinese visitors. It has aggressively relaxed visa requirements for Chinese tour groups, facilitating easier entry. Additionally, growing concerns about safety in Thailand have prompted travelers to seek alternatives, further boosting South Korea’s appeal.
The exchange rate between the Chinese yuan and the South Korean won has also made South Korea a more attractive destination. The weak won has made shopping and dining in cities like Seoul, Busan, and Jeju Island affordable for Chinese travelers. At the same time, Japan’s weak yen exchange rate has been overshadowed by the ongoing diplomatic tensions between China and Japan. The global popularity of South Korean pop culture, including K-pop and Korean dramas, has also played a significant role in drawing tourists. Popular destinations such as Seoul, Busan, and Jeju Island are benefiting from the global spread of Korean culture, making these cities desirable for travelers seeking to experience K-culture firsthand.
South Korea has capitalized on this trend by making strategic adjustments to its tourism offerings. Tour operators have reshuffled itineraries, moving from Japan to South Korea for the Spring Festival, effectively creating a substitution effect. The convergence of favorable exchange rates and the appeal of K-culture has given South Korea an edge over Japan, positioning it as the preferred choice for Chinese tourists this year.
This shift also highlights how quickly geopolitical factors can reshape the tourism industry, especially in Asia, a region with a tourism market valued at around US$500 billion. In November, China issued a travel advisory warning its citizens against visiting Japan due to controversial comments made by the Japanese Prime Minister regarding Taiwan. The Chinese government reiterated this warning earlier this week, citing “severe” safety risks during the Lunar New Year holiday. These political tensions have significantly influenced Chinese tourists’ decisions, causing them to reconsider Japan as a destination.
Many Chinese travelers have also canceled trips to Thailand, following a series of negative incidents involving Chinese nationals. These include the abduction and subsequent rescue of a Chinese actor in Thailand and a border conflict with Cambodia. As a result, South Korea has quickly moved to fill the void, offering more accessible visa policies, including extending its visa-free entry policy for Chinese tour groups until June.
This resurgence in Chinese tourism to South Korea is a notable turnaround from 2017 when a diplomatic dispute between China and South Korea over the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system led to a sharp decline in Chinese visitors to South Korea. However, recent diplomatic warming between the two countries has revived tourism ties. In a clear sign of improving relations, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung visited Beijing earlier this month for a second meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Airlines have quickly responded to the surge in demand. Flights from mainland China to South Korea have increased by nearly 25% compared to last year, with over 1,330 flights scheduled for the holiday period. In contrast, flights to Japan have decreased by 48%, with just over 800 flights scheduled. This shift reflects the changing preferences of Chinese travelers and the growing appeal of South Korea.
The economic impact of this trend is substantial. Mainland visitors are expected to spend between US$330 million and US$350 million in South Korea during the Lunar New Year holiday, surpassing the expected spending in Japan, which is forecast to range between US$250 million and US$300 million. This surge in spending is expected to boost South Korea’s economy, particularly in sectors related to retail, hospitality, and tourism.
In 2026, South Korea is anticipated to host more than seven million mainland Chinese tourists, marking a 15% increase from the previous year, according to research by Yanolja, a travel insights firm.firm based in South Korea. The surge in tourism has already led to an increase in stock prices for South Korean retail and consumer companies, as investors anticipate that Chinese tourists will continue to contribute to the country’s economic growth.
However, not all South Koreans are welcoming the influx of tourists. Local media and social platforms have raised concerns about rising crime rates linked to the surge in mainland visitors, although the South Korean government has largely dismissed these claims as unfounded. Additionally, a petition calling for the scrapping of the visa-free policy for Chinese tour groups has garnered around 60,000 signatures, reflecting concerns among some segments of the population.
South Korea is set to surpass Japan as the top destination for Chinese travelers during the Lunar New Year, driven by relaxed visa policies, favorable exchange rates, and the global rise of K-culture. Meanwhile, Japan faces a decline in visitors due to shifting travel preferences and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Meanwhile, Japan is bracing for weak visitor traffic from China, its largest source of tourist spending. According to Japan’s leading travel agency, JTB Corp, bookings from China for the first four months of 2026 have already fallen by about 50%. Japan is projected to face its first drop in foreign tourist arrivals since the pandemic, with a forecasted decrease of 2.8%, resulting in a total of 41.4 million visitors this year.
Read more on Travel And Tour World
