A potential crypto holdings sell-off due to mNAV collapse could be a key risk to track.
The firms collectively held over 16 million SOL or 2.8% of the overall crypto treasury market as of October.
Several Solana [SOL] treasury firms recorded massive unrealized losses following the recent SOL price crash.
One of the top SOL holders, Forward Industries (FORD), for example, saw its unrealized loss increase to 24% after a sharp drop in its holdings value from $1.65 billion to $1.20 billion.
Additionally, SOL price was down 33% from the firm’s average purchase price of $232.
Other top SOL DATs (digital asset treasuries), such as DeFi Corporations (DFDV), also had double-digit unrealized losses.
On top of the losses, the mNAV (market-to-net-asset-value, a tracker for the multiples at which a company trades relative to its crypto assets.
A discount mNAV makes raising capital difficult and may be construed as bearish, while a premium reading bodes well for bulls.
As of writing, mNAV has collapsed below 1 for all SOL DAT players except SOLAI (SLAI).
This could evolve into a distress and a risk if mNAV stays below 1 for too long, potentially forcing players to sell their crypto holdings to boost their stocks and mNAV.
Despite the market stress, the total treasury holdings crossed 16 million SOL for the first time in October. Compared to Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH] treasuries, SOL DATs had a 2.8% market share.
The steady accumulation from April was followed by a sharp uptick in price from $130 to over $220. In other words, demand from treasury firms had been steady in H2 2025.
Meanwhile, the top players on the Binance exchange had trimmed long positions from 71% to 65% over the past two weeks amid bearish momentum.
The cautious positioning was similar to the levels seen during the October 10 flash crash. At that time, longs dropped to 63% before rebounding steadily later.
It remains to be seen whether SOL will mark a bottom at $150 or slide lower to the next key support at $120.
