Solana traded around $196 at press time, climbing roughly 8% over the past 24 hours after hitting a weekly low of $173 during the October 10 market crash. Despite this short-term recovery, the token remains down 14% for the week and 19% over the past month, representing a 32% decline from its January peak near $293.
Trading activity has shown signs of life. Solana’s spot volume rose 14% to $12 billion in the last 24 hours, while derivatives activity also increased, with futures volume up 36% to $32.4 billion and open interest climbing 6%, according to CoinGlass. This suggests traders are gradually reopening positions and re-entering the market following the recent sell-off.
However, on-chain metrics tell a more cautious story. Data from DefiLlama shows Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume has steadily decreased since the crash, falling from $8.37 billion on October 10 to $6.43 billion on October 11 and $5.84 billion on October 12. Meanwhile, total value locked (TVL) dropped from $12.5 billion to around $10 billion before slightly rebounding to just over $11 billion.
Despite weakening DEX metrics, Solana’s stablecoin market capitalization has risen 8% over the past week to $16.2 billion, indicating that capital is largely on the sidelines, awaiting clearer market signals before being deployed.
Upcoming Catalysts for Solana’s Recovery
Several near-term developments could impact Solana’s price. From October 28 to November 15, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide on a potential spot SOL ETF. Polymarket odds currently suggest a 90% likelihood of approval. A favorable outcome could trigger institutional inflows worth billions, similar to the surge Ethereum experienced following its ETF approval.
Additionally, the upcoming Alpenglow upgrade, expected later this year, aims to accelerate on-chain trading by reducing transaction finality to roughly 150 milliseconds. Jump Crypto’s Firedancer validator client, scheduled for public testing in late October, is also expected to enhance network reliability and attract new DeFi liquidity.
Solana Price Technical Analysis
Solana continues to consolidate below the $200 resistance level. The relative strength index (RSI) sits at 43, reflecting neutral momentum, while key short-term moving averages between $210 and $220 currently act as resistance.
The 200- and 100-day moving averages provide longer-term support around $186 and $198, while several short-term moving averages above the current price are acting as resistance in the $210–$220 range.
If SOL can hold above $185–$190 and push past the mid-$200s, it could attract renewed buying toward previous highs. Conversely, a drop below the $170–$180 zone may prompt sellers to target the next structural support levels, potentially leading to deeper consolidation in the coming weeks.
