Stuck in a symmetrical triangle since mid-September, Solana’s price reflects a war of attrition between buyers and sellers. Neither side gives up. But technical and on-chain signals converge: this stalemate is coming to an end. The next breakout could well decide SOL’s fate for the coming weeks.
Analysis of blockchain data reveals a notable shift in investment strategies. The net position change indicator shows that long-term holders continue to sell, but at a significantly slower pace. This 60% deceleration often serves as a precursor signal of reversal near local lows.
Short-term traders are also adjusting their approach. Between October 9 and 23, wallets holding SOL for less than a month significantly reduced their exposure. This contraction reflects opportunistic profit-taking during brief rebounds.
Meanwhile, a category of investors emerges as a stabilizing force: those holding positions between 1 and 3 months. Their share increased by nearly 23%, demonstrating confidence in discreet accumulation during pullbacks. This dynamic explains why Solana maintains its range without collapsing abruptly.
The macro context reinforces this cautious optimism. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, anticipates that ” SOL aims for 210-220 dollars, supported by the expansion of DeFi activity and validator growth “.
She also emphasizes that ” regulatory thaw and favorable liquidity winds fuel renewed optimism towards cryptos”, creating one of the most constructive environments for the sector in recent years.
On the daily chart, Solana has been moving within a symmetrical triangle since mid-September. Each peak is lower, each trough higher. This compression reflects the market’s total indecision. But history teaches us that a triangle always ends up bursting one way or another.
Two levels now define the battlefield. A breakout above $211 would give buyers the advantage and mark the exit through the top of the triangle. Conversely, a breakdown below $174 would confirm sellers regaining control.
Between these two bounds, $197 is the first resistance to watch, while $188 remains the key support. A close below $188 would open the way to $174. A rebound above $197 could trigger an acceleration towards $211, a potential gain of over 9%.
In this context, Solana is also trying to regain its leadership in decentralized finance. With Percolator, its new perpetual contract DEX, the ecosystem fights back against Hyperliquid and Aster. This technological battle could influence market perception and attract new capital if the execution follows.
The battle between buyers and sellers remains balanced, but the countdown has started. Charts and on-chain data agree: the next breakout is close. And it will be decisive.
