Solana faces heightened short-term risk as Coinbase’s newly launched perpetual futures introduce both potential upside and amplified downside pressure.
After rallying 67% from its late-July low of $126 to an intraday peak of $210 on August 14—slightly surpassing the July rally high of $206—Solana has sharply retraced, dipping to $175 yesterday.
Today’s daily candle shows early signs of a bounce, but SOL remains capped below the 7-day EMA at $183.5, indicating that short-term momentum is under pressure.
Technical indicators add to the cautious outlook. A bearish RSI divergence has emerged: while SOL price hit a new high above $210, the RSI formed a lower high. Coupled with the inability to break past the $206 July peak, this suggests that Solana could be forming a double-top around the $206–210 range.
If the bounce fails to reclaim and sustain above the 7-day EMA and the $190 resistance area, downside risk remains significant. A drop below the $173–170 zone (50-day SMA) could trigger a deeper correction toward the 100-day SMA near $166, and potentially down to $155—a level that would confirm a double-top neckline breakdown and signal further losses.
price has retreated sharply, dipping to a $175 low yesterday.
While today’s daily candle shows signs of a bounce, SOL price remains capped below the 7-day EMA ($183.5), signaling that short-term momentum is under pressure.
Adding to the cautious outlook, there’s a clear case of bearish RSI divergence: even as Solana price pushed to a new high above $210, the RSI printed a lower high. This signal, combined with the failure to break above the $206 July peak, raises the risk that SOL is carving out a double-top formation around the $206–210 zone.
If the bounce fails to reclaim and hold above the 7-day EMA and the $190 resistance region, the downside risk remains high. A breakdown below $173–170 (50-day SMA) could open the door for a deeper correction toward the 100-day SMA near $166, and potentially even the $155, which would mark the completion of a double-top neckline breakdown — signaling further downside.
Could Coinbase’s New SOL Perpetual Futures Spark a Solana Price Drop?
The recent launch of Solana perpetual futures on Coinbase has heightened the risk of further downside. These contracts offer U.S. traders a regulated way to trade SOL with up to 5x leverage—but that leverage works both ways.
It could spark a strong rebound if buyers step in around the $175–$180 support zone. Conversely, the same leverage makes it easier for traders to amplify selling through short positions, potentially intensifying downward pressure if key levels fail to hold.
