Myriad priced a 17% chance of an alt season in Q1 2026 as Solana shows growth pockets amid declines in DEX volume, activity, and app revenue.
U.S. spot Solana ETFs pulled in $23.57 million of net inflows on Wednesday, the strongest daily intake in four weeks, but the market reaction stayed measured. SOL hovered around $141, flat on the day and up 8% on the week, while Bitcoin traded near $97,000 as sentiment improved. The headline inflow is real, yet it still reads like a nudge, not a regime change. A Bitget Wallet analyst said the netflow could break Solana’s subdued trend and even push toward $150 if sustained. Even so, the inflows were less than 1% of Solana’s trading volume.
The inflow print hit a market that still looks selective. Major altcoins like Solana, XRP, and BNB remain subdued, with rallies largely confined to narrative-driven pockets such as privacy coins and meme tokens. Illia Otychenko of CEX.IO argued the current demand is not strong enough to sustain bullish momentum or trigger a clear trend change, noting Solana ETF total net assets are about 1.5% of SOL’s market capitalization and daily ETF volume is under 1% of Solana spot volume. The institutional bid is improving, but the tape is not confirming a broad altcoin revival yet.
That caution shows up in positioning. On prediction market Myriad, traders assigned a 17% chance that an “alt season” begins in Q1 2026, up from 16% at the start of the week, a lift that still reads like hesitation. At the same time, Solana’s fundamentals are not empty: FrictionlessVC said nine of the 22 fastest-growing companies to reach $100 million in revenue are built on Solana. Pump.fun also doubled active addresses over the past week, with daily token creation near 31,000. The network is producing growth signals, even while traders keep their confidence tightly hedged.
Otychenko warned those bright spots sit against broader network pressure. He pointed to declines in Solana’s overall DEX trading volume, transaction activity, and total app revenue in recent months, arguing that some apps can grow while the network remains strained. Lacie Zhang countered that any perceived lag may reflect temporary volatility and that disconnects like this often precede bullish breakouts, highlighting what she called undervalued potential for future gains. For decision-makers, the next checkpoint is whether ETF inflows stay elevated long enough to offset weakening network-wide metrics. If they fade, $23.57 million looks fleeting today.
