Key points:
- SOL has stayed stuck below $200 despite strong debut trading volumes for the new Solana ETFs, which analysts have described as impressive.
- Some market watchers suggest Solana’s price movement may follow a pattern similar to Ethereum’s, which saw muted performance following the launch of its own spot ETFs.
Throughout September, traders and analysts remained strongly bullish on SOL, pointing to the U.S. SEC’s Oct. 10 deadline for spot ETF approvals and the strong performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs as reasons to position early.
Data from the period showed increased accumulation of SOL futures and spot holdings across multiple investor groups. However, the U.S. government shutdown threw the approval timeline into uncertainty, and a broad crypto market sell-off on Oct. 10 pushed SOL’s price down to around $147 on some exchanges.
Fast forward to today, and the market has now seen the debut of two Solana ETFs trading this week. Grayscale Investments launched its staking-enabled Solana spot ETF (GSOL) on Wednesday, while the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) began trading on Tuesday. According to Cointelegraph, BSOL debuted with $222 million in assets and recorded $72 million in trading volume by its second day.
Before the U.S. government shutdown and the Oct. 10 market sell-off, analysts had predicted that Solana ETF approvals and successful launches could spark a major SOL rally, with price targets ranging between $300 and $600. However, SOL currently remains below $200.
When asked whether the outcome reflects a “sell-the-news” reaction, Hyblock analysts commented:
“BTC’s ETF launch and BTC price also had a similar relationship on launch. BTC price trended flat and down (around -5%) despite growing inflows. Eventually, the floodgates opened and inflows really spiked, which marked the bottom on BTC price. The SOL ETF may be going through a similar cycle as the initial excitement fades away.”
The analysts noted that the timing of this week’s FOMC meeting may also be weighing on SOL’s price action, as “many participants — especially institutions likely to buy through ETFs — are de-risking ahead of the meeting.” They added that this is “not a red flag, but expected behavior during major market events.”
Current market data shows sellers maintaining control, with support levels forming around $188–$185 and resistance between $204 and $207, according to order book trends.
