World-renowned economist Martin Armstrong returns to the Friday Night Financial Review to unpack the massive change his AI-driven forecasting system, Socrates, has identified. He explains why the model is pointing to a historic inflection — and, as he asserts, how Socrates has been 100% accurate in timing when wars begin. Armstrong also lays out a 300-year cycle of change he says will follow the wars, reshaping currencies, capital flows, and governance.
Learn more about Martin Armstrong at Armstrong Economics
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Martin Armstrong was born in New Jersey the son of a lawyer and Lt. Col under General Patton in World War II. Martin was encouraged by his father to get involved in computers during the mid-1960s. He completed engineering both in hardware and software but after being offered positions by a government contractor RCA in Thule Greenland, Guam, or Vietnam, he decided to go back to gold business that he had first began working while in High School to earn money for a family trip to Europe in 1964 for the summer. He continued to work on weekends through high school finding the real world exciting for this was the beginning of the collapse of the gold standard. Silver was removed from the coinage in 1965 and by 1968 gold began trading in bullion form in London. The gold standard collapse entirely in the summer of 1971 and gold became legal to trade in America during 1975 in bullion form. Previously, the market for gold had always been in coin form as long as they were dated prior to 1948.
Armstrong began his studies into market behavior when first becoming fascinated by the events during the Crash of 1966. Working through this period exposed him to the real world compared to the theories offered in school. When his history teacher showed an old black & white film, The Toast of New York, starting Edward Arnold and Cary Grant, which portrayed the gold manipulation of Jim Fisk that resulted in the Panic of 1869, his perception of the world was changed forever. This was the Panic when the term “Black Friday” was coined because the mob stormed Wall Street and was dragging the bankers from their offices and hanging them. The riot prompted troops to be sent in to restore peace. A scene in this movie showed Cary Grant reading the prices of gold from the tickertape as it hit $162 in 1869. Since gold was $35 in the 1960s, there was clearly something wrong with the whole linear thought process of economic history. Armstrong became captivated by this shocking revelation that there were not just booms and busts, but also peaks and valleys that would last centuries.
Armstrong pursued his studies of economics searching for answers behind the cycle of boom and busts that plagued society both in Princeton and in London. He began to do forecasting as a service to institutional cash market players in gold that included Swiss banks. As currency also began to float in 1971, Armstrong found the gyrations thought-provoking and began to notice the same oscillations that appeared in stocks in 1966, real estate into 1970, and gold as it rose to $42 in 1968 and fell below the official price of $35 in 1970, were manifesting in the rise and fall of currency prices. Armstrong became one of the very first to being forecasting currencies.
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