1. Domestic Shockwaves: Dangote and NNPC Hike Fuel Prices Amid Global Crisis
The escalating geopolitical conflict between Iran, Israel, and the USA delivered a direct hit to Nigerian consumers on Tuesday, 3 March. Both the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) implemented sharp increases in the ex-depot prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS, petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO, diesel), triggering an immediate surge in pump prices nationwide.
Market Snapshot:
* Lagos: Petrol jumped to N935-N940/litre (from ~N830), with diesel now selling at N1,150/litre.
The price realignment was triggered by the Dangote Refinery on 2 March, citing volatile shifts in the global energy market.
* PMS Increase: The refinery raised its ex-depot price by ₦100 to ₦874 per litre. An official statement attributed the move to “changes in global crude fundamentals and replacement costs.” This followed a brief suspension of loading operations as international crude prices surged past $80 per barrel.
* AGO Spike: Diesel prices saw an even steeper climb, increasing by ₦170 to an ex-depot price of ₦1,050 per litre. This has already translated to pump prices of ₦1,100 – ₦1,150 at private depots in Lagos, raising significant concerns for businesses — from factories to telecoms — that rely heavily on diesel for power generation.
Root Cause: Geopolitics Meets Deregulation
The primary driver is the “risk premium” now embedded in global crude prices due to Middle East tensions.
* The “Hormuz Factor”: Fears of supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world’s crude passes — have pushed Brent crude, Nigeria’s benchmark, above $84 per barrel.
* The Deregulation Reality: Nigeria’s fully deregulated downstream sector now acts as a direct transmission belt for these global shocks. Increased crude costs are immediately reflected in the price of refined products and passed on to the end consumer.
Market Reactions and Policy Calls
* Retailer Response: Major marketers like MRS, TotalEnergies, and Eterna quickly aligned with the new price band, updating their pumps in Lagos and Abuja.
* Renewed Calls for Intervention: The price surge has amplified voices, including PETROAN and CORAN, urging the government to expand the Naira-for-Crude initiative. They argue that selling more crude to local refineries in Naira would insulate domestic prices from foreign exchange volatility and global market swings.
2. Voices from the Epicentre: A Firsthand Account of the Conflict
As geopolitical tensions rise, the human toll is being felt throughout the region. Emeka Oparah, a Nigerian international executive with Airtel Africa based in Dubai, shared a poignant Facebook post detailing the psychological and physical strain of the first days of the conflict.
The missiles and drones have been literally raining on the UAE. Mercifully, the government is prepared. Imagine if these weren’t intercepted — or if they were raining down in Nigeria or Africa, God forbid!!!
However, you cannot intercept fear. People are understandably scared. This is worsened by a barrage of real and fake news (supported by AI) falling with the same force as the missiles.
Still, you have to give credit to the government. They have performed exceptionally well. Communication has been of a world-class standard.
Leaders, including the Ruler of Dubai, have made public appearances at malls and restaurants to reassure the public. They even instructed hotels to extend visitors’ stays free of charge, sending the invoices to the Ministry of Tourism!
A few places have been hit by missiles or debris, so the tension is real. Thank God for the basements — usually car parks, now safe houses where people dash when emergency alerts hit our phones.
As we follow instructions, we place our faith in the Great Architect to bring this to a peaceful resolution. War is not a good thing at all. To jaw-jaw is still much better than to war-war, as Churchill said.
This is my message to the warmongers: missiles, bullets, fear, and hunger lack names. Those of us who lived through the Nigerian Civil War can vouch for this. Google Kwashiorkor and learn what hunger truly means.
To all those affected by war, may the God of justice, peace, and love come to your aid. Amen.
3. Building Bridges: A Multi-Stakeholder Push for Peace in the Northwest
On 3 March, a pivotal peace conference in Northwest Nigeria, organised by Global Rights and Partners West Africa Nigeria (PWAN), marked the conclusion of the UK FCDO-funded Integrated Security Fund project. The event underscored a strategic shift from military solutions toward multi-stakeholder collaboration to tackle the region’s banditry crisis.
Key Insights from the Conference:
* Gender as a Central Lens: UK Deputy High Commissioner Gill Lever provided a stark analysis, noting that sociocultural norms amplify the impact of the conflict on women, leaving them disproportionately vulnerable. Her remarks stressed that peace efforts must actively dismantle these barriers, not just acknowledge them.
* Women as Nation-Builders: In a keynote address, Bishop Matthew Kukah positioned women as foundational agents of stability. He framed their role in a progressive national development context: “Strong families build strong communities. Strong communities build a strong nation.”
* The Imperative of Inclusive Justice: Kemi Okenyodo, Executive Director of PWAN, argued that peace is unattainable without functional systems.
She called for improved access to justice alongside inclusive peacebuilding, emphasising that communities must have faith in the rule of law for dialogue to be effective.
The conference, which included the Sultan of Sokoto, signals a growing consensus that addressing root causes — social inequality, legal impunity, and gender-based marginalisation — is essential for sustainable peace.
4. A Question of Statecraft: Who is Thinking for Nigeria?
A troubling observation has emerged regarding the operational security of Nigeria’s foreign missions. Reports indicate that some overseas posts are reportedly using commercial, unsecured email platforms like Gmail and Yahoo for official correspondence with the Home Office. This practice, involving both classified and unclassified information, raises fundamental questions about digital sovereignty, data security, and the country’s vulnerability to foreign intelligence gathering. It prompts a critical, overarching question: In an era of sophisticated cyber warfare, who is safeguarding Nigeria’s strategic interests?
