A weak reversal setup exists, but SHIB needs whale follow-through and an altcoin cycle to revive.
Shiba Inu price has had a rough year. The token is down nearly 70% year-on-year and more than 90% from its all-time high. With meme coin interest fading, many now question whether SHIB is slowly dying.
That concern grew after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said meme coins are “dead,” citing collapsing dominance and shrinking speculation. On the surface, Shiba Inu seems to fit that narrative. But on-chain data adds more layers to the story.
The broader meme coin market has clearly weakened. CryptoQuant data shows meme coin dominance has fallen to early-2024 lows, signaling reduced speculative activity across altcoins.
Shiba Inu mirrors that trend. Price has stayed under long-term resistance, and rallies have failed to hold. Smart money wallets, which track experienced and active traders, have steadily reduced SHIB exposure throughout the year.
That suggests traders are not positioning for short-term rebounds. Simply put, informed traders are not relying on price surges, let alone rallies.
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A recent chunk of derivatives data reinforces this view. Over the past 30 days, most perpetual futures traders have cut exposure. Outside of the largest addresses, leverage remains light. This shows traders are cautious and not expecting a fast or explosive move.
In simple terms, speculation has dried up. That supports the idea that meme coins are no longer driving the market the way they once did. But speculation is only one side of the equation.
Despite weak price action, long-term behavior tells a different story.
Shiba Inu’s holder count, which tracks how many wallets hold SHIB, has continued to rise throughout the year. It started near 1.46 million and has grown to roughly 1.54 million. The growth has not been smooth, but the trend remains positive, even as prices fell sharply.
Whale data is more striking.
Over the past year, large holders have increased their SHIB balances by about 249%, per the image shared earlier. Mega-whale balances are up roughly 28.5%. At the same time, exchange balances, which show how many tokens sit on trading platforms, have dropped by nearly 22%. Fewer coins on exchanges usually mean less immediate selling pressure.
This trend accelerated recently. Over the past 30 days alone, whale balances rose more than 61%, while most of the exchange outflows happened during the same period.
That does not look like panic or abandonment. It looks like slow accumulation.
However, it is important to note that derivatives traders are not joining in. Outside of top addresses, leverage positioning remains muted. Whales appear early, but are not aggressive.
SHIB price action remains fragile, but it is not hopeless.
On the three-day chart, Shiba Inu is trading inside a long-term falling wedge, a pattern that often turns bullish if the price breaks upward. Recently, a key signal appeared.
Between December 3 and December 12, the Shiba Inu price made a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made a higher low. This bullish divergence suggests selling pressure is weakening, raising the odds of a trend reversal.
Key levels now matter more than narratives.
The first resistance sits near $0.0000092. A clean break above this level would mark a breakout from the upper trendline that has capped the price since September. If confirmed, the next resistance zones lie near $0.000010, $0.000011, and $0.000014, which align with the last major swing high. Do note that only a level break beyond $0.0000092 could completely invalidate the “dead coin” claims.
On the downside, the structure weakens below $0.0000075. A sustained move under that level would invalidate the reversal setup and reopen downside risk.
Shiba Inu is not dead, but it is not strong either. Speculation is gone, traders remain cautious, and quick gains are unlikely. Still, rising holder counts, heavy whale accumulation, and falling exchange balances suggest the chain is far from abandoned.
If an altcoin cycle returns, Shiba Inu still has a path to revival. For now, it remains in survival mode, waiting for stronger confirmation.
