SMM Tin Morning Update on March 5, 2026:
Futures: After opening slightly higher in the night session, the most-traded SHFE tin contract stayed at a high level and consolidated, closing at 406,590 yuan/mt, up 2.84%.
Macro: (1) Dong Jin, an NPC deputy and President of the Beijing Microchip Blockchain and Edge Computing Research Institute, said that in the development of the digital economy, blockchain is one of the most critical pieces of digital infrastructure. A blockchain-specific acceleration chip developed by his team can boost blockchain performance by 50 times. More importantly, this technology has successfully broken through the computing-power bottleneck faced by ultra-large-scale blockchain networks, giving China’s trusted digital infrastructure a “China chip.” At present, as applications expand, a national-level blockchain network has taken shape. The purpose of this network is to embed high-value core data in areas such as China’s cross-border trade and global payments into China’s self-developed systems. (2) According to CNBC, Xiaomi President Lu Weibing said in an interview with CNBC that Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) is expected to release a brand-new smartphone processor chip every year, highlighting the company’s ambition to move into more cutting-edge technology fields. Lu also revealed that Xiaomi was preparing to launch its proprietary AI assistant for overseas markets. Last year, Xiaomi released the XRing O1, a system-on-chip (SoC) manufactured using an advanced 3-nanometer process. Among smartphone makers, only a very small number of companies can design their own SoCs that power devices. Apple has its A-series chips, Samsung has the Exynos brand, while most other handset makers rely on SoCs from Qualcomm and MediaTek. Lu said Xiaomi’s goal was to achieve cross-platform coverage of its AI assistant across smartphones and cars. Last year, Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun announced that the company would invest at least 50 billion yuan (about $6.9 billion) in chip R&D over the next 10 years.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply: In March, most smelters were expected to gradually resume production and operations, ending their holiday status. (2) Demand: Downstream procurement was relatively cautious. Downstream enterprises were expected to gradually resume production and operations, but orders were relatively mediocre.
Spot market: After futures fell sharply yesterday, trading in the tin ingot spot market recovered somewhat. This morning, as market direction remained unclear, most enterprises stayed on the sidelines, steadily arranged production for pre-holiday orders, and only a small amount of just-in-time procurement followed up. Downstream enterprises have basically resumed production and operations, and going forward, attention should focus on the strength of demand recovery and the actual ability to absorb market inventory. Exchange inventory is still accumulating at a relatively high level. High inventory poses certain downside risks; if downstream and end-use demand absorb inventory at a moderate pace, it may help ease some inventory pressure.
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