Intro
For the first time in almost two months, Ethereum has broken below its ascending trendline. In addition, a flat top structure is clearly visible on the 4H chart. These signals make me less bullish on Ethereum compared to before.
That said, there’s still no confirmation of a full trend reversal yet. However, I’ll be more cautious about opening long positions on ETH for now. The key level I’m watching is 4,078.56 — a breakdown below this level could change my long-term outlook on Ethereum and provide a potential short trigger.
⏳ 1H Outlook
On the 1H timeframe, the first setup that caught my attention is a triangle pattern, which has recently broken to the upside. A pullback to the breakout area has also occurred. If price breaks above 4,483.86 after this pullback, it could present a good long opportunity.
Still, I don’t plan to hold this long for the mid/long term — I will take profits at the nearest resistance levels. I’ll keep this approach until the upcoming U.S. unemployment data and other economic news set the broader market direction this week.
📉 Short-side View
At the moment, I don’t see a clear short trigger on Ethereum, nor do I have a strong interest in taking short positions right now.
From a broader perspective, Ethereum may be forming a large range (box) between 4,065.50 and 4,816.84. Currently, the price sits roughly in the middle of this range, while potential short triggers are much closer to the bottom boundary of the box.
