The crypto industry’s biggest legislative moment arrives Thursday, and Galaxy Research says there’s only a 25% chance enough Democrats will break ranks to give the bill a real shot at becoming law.
Thursday Vote Could Decide Crypto’s Fate Through 2027
Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) and Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) shareholders face a critical test as the markup hearing could determine whether crypto gets federal regulatory clarity in 2025 — or waits until 2027 or beyond.
Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorne laid out three scenarios with dramatically different outcomes for crypto stocks.
Scenario 1: Bipartisan Win (25% probability) All Republicans plus two to four Democrats vote yes, advancing the bill to the Senate floor with momentum. This mirrors the stablecoin bill’s path last July, which got 68 votes — a veto-proof majority.
Scenario 2: Partisan Advance (50% probability) Republicans push it through committee alone, but the bill likely dies on the Senate floor without Democrat support. More negotiations possible, but timeline extends.
Scenario 3: Failed Markup (25% probability) Bill doesn’t escape committee. Thorne warns this pushes any legislation past the 2026 midterms into 2027 or beyond.
The Real Fight Isn’t About Market Structure Anymore
The original question — what’s a security versus a commodity — is mostly settled.
Now it’s a “Christmas tree bill” with everyone hanging new ornaments, according to Thorne.
Current sticking points:
* DeFi regulation: Will developers have to register with the SEC and conduct KYC/AML compliance?
* Stablecoin yield: Can issuers pass interest earned on reserves to token holders?
* Government ethics: Restrictions on presidential family crypto profits
* Prediction markets: Potential ban on sports betting outcomes
* Tokenized securities: DeFi trading rules
The DeFi question is Thorne’s “red line” for the industry.
Forcing non-custodial wallet developers to comply with Bank Secrecy Act requirements would be “fundamentally unworkable.”
Why Failure Might Not Crush Crypto Stocks
Thorne argues no bill might be better than a bad bill.
The industry is already getting wins through administrative relief under new SEC and CFTC leadership. Regulatory guidance alone could sustain the sector through 2026-2027.
The real risk: codifying restrictive rules into federal law that would survive future hostile administrations.
Moreover, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been lobbying hard for the bill. The exchange has over 100 million users and positioned itself as the “everything exchange” competing with traditional brokerages.
Robinhood is attacking from the opposite direction — starting as a stock brokerage, now adding crypto, prediction markets, and 24/7 trading.
Both need regulatory clarity to accelerate institutional adoption, but bad clarity could kill their crypto businesses.
What Happens Next
Text of the bill and proposed amendments becomes public Tuesday night.
Senators must deliver amendment proposals with physical signatures and 50 copies to the Banking Committee chair by 5 p.m. Tuesday.
Thursday’s hearing will show which amendments get votes and whether Democrats cross over.
The 25% odds of clean passage reflect how late-stage additions — sports betting bans, presidential ethics rules, Wall Street DeFi lobbying — turned straightforward market structure into a political minefield.
Thorne’s team will publish updated analysis after the committee draft drops Monday night.
Image: Shutterstock
COINCoinbase Global Inc
$257.892.06%
Overview
HOODRobinhood Markets Inc
$118.53-1.43%
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