Scotland’s jails may soon have to turn prisoners away – as an overcrowding crisis threatens to plunge the criminal justice system into chaos.
Official predictions suggest the number of inmates could reach a record 8,750 by the end of the year – an astonishing 700 more than the jails are designed to accommodate.
Amid fears of escalating violence and disorder, the Scottish Mail on Sunday can reveal ministers are now planning a new emergency release of offenders to relieve pressure on the system – with around 500 criminals set to be freed early.
However the body which represents the country’s prison governors has issued a stark warning that, despite the move, overcrowding could still reach unsustainable levels – meaning jails would simply not be able to admit any more inmates.
A spokesman for the Prison Governors Association (Scotland) said: ‘If the population reaches the numbers that have been forecast, the prison system simply won’t have the beds or the space to take anyone else.
‘The courts would not be able to sentence offenders. The entire criminal justice system would grind to a halt.’
It remains unclear what would happen if jails were unable to accept more people – although options could include using police cells, stopping judges and sheriffs from locking up criminals, or else ordering the mass release of serving prisoners to make room for new inmates.
The PGA(S) is now demanding Justice Secretary Angela Constance spell out how she will prevent the ‘alarming’ and ‘unprecedented’ situation.
The body which represents the country’s prison governors has issued the stark warning
Bosses are demanding Justice Secretary Angela Constance spell out how she will prevent the ‘alarming’ and ‘unprecedented’ situation
The spokesman said: ‘If the government has a strategy to deal with this, we’d really like to know about it.’
Opposition politicians have now warned that releasing ‘dangerous criminals’ will threaten public safety – and have blamed the SNP for mismanagement of the prison system.
Scottish Conservative shadow justice secretary Liam Kerr said: ‘The Nationalists’ first port of call is to release dangerous criminals back onto Scotland’s streets. But going forward it seems our jails won’t be able to accommodate criminals in the first place.
‘Scotland’s desperate lack of prison capacity is a direct result of SNP incompetence. Their abject failure to deliver new prisons in Glasgow and the Highlands on time and on budget is putting public safety at risk, and their lack of proper strategy or planning over nearly two decades of government is a disgrace.’
Prison over-crowding has been a long-standing problem for the Scottish government.
During the pandemic, emergency legislation was drawn up to allow hundreds of prisoners to be released – as a way of reducing the spread of coronavirus.
Last summer 477 more were released as an emergency measure to lower the prison population – although research later showed that 57 of them – around one in eight – were back behind bars again within weeks after being accused of further offences.
Earlier this year new rules were introduced meaning that most prisoners serving less than four years are automatically released after 40 per cent of their sentence.
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The move – which critics branded an insult to the victims of crime – also allowed hundred more offenders to be released in successive tranches.
But despite these measures, jails remain full beyond capacity.
The prison system is designed to accommodate just over 8,000 inmates. Official figures show the number last week stood at near-record levels – at 8,356.
However the prison service has published new predictions showing the population could rise as high as 8,750 by the end of December – almost 10 per cent above capacity.
Sources within the prison system have told the MoS ministers are now planning a further emergency release of around 500 offenders.
The PGA(S) is worried the move will have little long-term impact on numbers.
The spokesman said: ‘Early release gives us maybe six to eight weeks of respite – but it doesn’t solve anything or significantly change the pressures we face daily.’
He explained that various factors heighten the problems of over-crowding.
He said: ‘The presence of serious and organised crime groups means there are warring factions and enemies that must be kept apart.
‘The number of prisoners taking psycho-active substances is a real problem too. It affects their mental health and behaviour. Sometimes an establishment can have eight or ten prisoners at any time who end up needing to be taken to hospital.
‘All of these things have an impact on staffing – which has a knock-on effect on other prisoners in terms of their time in the fresh air and access to work, which then leads to frustration.’
He added: ‘Prisons need to run on good-will… There are far more of them than there are of us. But the more overcrowded prisons become, the more fractious the relationships between staff and prisoners. There’s a real risk of large-scale disorder.’
The Scottish Government declined to discuss details of the plan to release 500 extra prisoners – but confirmed ‘further measures’ were being considered to tackle the rising jail population.
Justice Secretary Angela Constance said: ‘Scotland is not alone in facing challenges as a result of a rise in the prison population. There is no single reason for the increase and there is no single solution.
‘We have taken a range of actions to address this, including changing the point of release for some short-term prisoners and bringing forward regulations to widen the use of home detention curfew, which enables selected individuals to be released to serve the last part of their sentence under curfew and clear licence conditions.
‘We are continuing to work with the Scottish Prison Service and partners on further measures to manage the complex prison population in a sustainable way.’
Earlier this month we revealed that prison officers across Scotland are to be issued with body-worn video cameras in a bid to tackle cell-block violence.
Every guard in the country’s 16 state-run prisons is to be equipped with a high-tech bodycam while on duty., allowing them to record footage of any fights, drug-taking or abuse, which can then be used as evidence in a potential criminal prosecution.
Figures released in June showed attacks on prison staff have increased alarmingly – with an officer assaulted by inmates almost every day in Scotland’s jails.
Data from the SPS showed 350 officers were attacked during 2024-25 -the highest number in five years.
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