Despite recent weakness in its stock price and a slowdown in Bitcoin accumulation, Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, could have a 70% chance of joining the S&P 500 index by year’s end, according to a new report from crypto intelligence firm 10X Research.
The company is scheduled to release its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, which are projected to show an estimated $3.8 billion gain from fair-value Bitcoin accounting adjustments.
A profitable quarter would significantly boost Strategy’s prospects for S&P 500 inclusion on December 19, with 10X Research assigning a 60–70% likelihood of that outcome.
“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” the report noted, suggesting that the upcoming earnings release could rekindle speculation about a December 5 S&P 500 inclusion decision.
While investor sentiment toward the stock remains subdued, 10X Research described the forthcoming earnings report as an “obvious catalyst” that could revive market optimism around Strategy.
Bitcoin Slowdown Puts Pressure on Valuations
The optimistic forecast for Strategy’s potential S&P 500 inclusion comes amid growing concerns over the stability of digital asset treasuries (DATs), as several firms have seen their market net asset value (mNAV) fall below critical levels in 2025.
The mNAV ratio, which measures a company’s enterprise value relative to its crypto holdings, serves as a key indicator of financial flexibility. Firms with an mNAV above 1 can issue new shares to raise capital and expand their digital asset reserves. However, when the ratio drops below 1, it becomes much more difficult to secure new funding or grow their holdings.
Over the past months, multiple DATs — including Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI), and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV) — have fallen below this threshold, effectively limiting their ability to acquire additional Bitcoin and putting pressure on their balance sheet valuations.
Liquidity Poised to Return as Market Nears Key Cycle Point
Strategy has noticeably slowed its Bitcoin accumulation, purchasing just 778 BTC in October — a 78% drop from the 3,526 BTC it added in September, marking one of its smallest monthly acquisitions this year.
However, despite the pullback in buying activity and the recent $19 billion market correction, analysts at 10X Research suggest that this may be “exactly the stage” in the crypto market cycle when liquidity begins to return and major price movements start to emerge.
“With the NAV premium largely unwound, which caused $18 billion in losses for investors and volatility beginning to pick up again, the risk-reward dynamic is no longer about bracing for downside — it’s about preparing for what comes next.”
Despite the optimistic outlook, Strategy was assigned a “B-” credit rating by S&P Global Ratings, placing it in speculative, non-investment-grade territory typically reserved for “junk bond” issuers, even as the agency maintained a positive view of the company’s stock performance.
This represents the first-ever S&P Global rating for a Bitcoin-treasury-focused firm, setting a notable precedent for how traditional financial institutions may evaluate crypto-centric companies moving forward.
