Labour’s one in, one out migrant policy has deterred Channel crossings at a lower rate than the Conservatives’ Rwanda scheme, research suggests.
Sophisticated modelling indicates that the one in, one out scheme of returning Channel migrants to France has reduced arrivals by 9 per cent from levels otherwise expected from July 10, when it was announced, to Oct 31.
By contrast, the Rwanda scheme appears to have had a bigger deterrent effect in that arrivals rose by 24 per cent more than projected after it was scrapped by Labour following last summer’s election.
The impact of both schemes appeared to be dwarfed by that of the Dublin III regulation, under which migrants were returned to the EU. After it was scrapped as part of the Tories’ Brexit deal, arrivals were 41 per cent higher than projected.
The modelling, which has been published in a peer-reviewed journal, is designed to predict the daily number of small boat migrant arrivals based on weather and sea conditions, the scale of illegal immigration across Europe, asylum refusals, cross-Channel deaths, returns agreements and other schemes.
It has previously proved highly accurate in forecasting migrants crossings. It has predicted 45,651 crossings by the end of this year, in line with 2022. With just over 39,000 migrants having reached the UK so far this year, the figure is closely tracking 2022’s trajectory.
The model is calibrated on five years of data from 2020 to 2024, collated from public sources including the Met Office, Channel Coastal Observatory, Home Office and European Border and Coast Guard Agency.
The modelling has been created by Dr Richard Wood, a data scientist who specialises in forecasts for real-world scenarios.
Deterrents ‘have some impact’
While migrant arrivals are highly contingent on the weather and sea conditions, the model suggests that government policies and agreements do have an effect.
“Deterrents appear to have some impact, noting migrant arrivals 41 per cent higher since repealing the Dublin III regulation and 36 per cent lower since introducing the [2022] Albania returns agreement – both findings statistically significant,” said Dr Wood.
Analysing the impact of the one in, one out scheme, which has so far returned more than 100 Channel migrants to France, Dr Wood’s model suggested that it could have reduced migrant arrivals by 8.8 per cent. This is based on the numbers since July being 1,482 lower than the 16,746 predicted.
However, he cautioned that the 8.8 per cent decline in arrivals was within the “expected variation” so may not have been directly caused by the one in, one out scheme.
Credit: StringersHub via Reuters
Dr Wood said his research, published in the International Migration Review, showed migrant arrivals can be predicted. “This could be useful for both operationally – informing adequate preparation of enforcement agencies at departure coasts, and strategically – choosing deterrents that are known to work,” he said.
The Home Office said it did “not recognise” the analysis but said an evaluation of one in, one out scheme was underway.
“Our pilot scheme, which continues to be scaled up, has already resulted in more than 100 illegal migrants with no right to remain in the United Kingdom being returned to France. In contrast, the Rwanda scheme cost taxpayers £700m and delivered only four voluntary returns,” said a spokesman.
“Thanks to this agreement, migrants who pay people smugglers to cross the Channel now know they risk being sent straight back to France.”
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “We have some simple facts. The Labour Government made a catastrophic mistake by cancelling the Rwanda removals deterrent just before it stared and numbers crossing have surged since the election.
“Since the government’s so-called ‘one in, one out’ deal was announced, about 16,000 illegal immigrants have come in and only about 100 sent out – so illegal channel immigrants have a 99.5 per cent chance of staying in the UK.”
