Exactly a year ago, at the 2025 Munich Security Conference (MSC), US Vice President JD Vance stood on that same podium in the Bayerischer Hof Hotel and sent shockwaves across Europe. He chastised Europe for retreating from democratic values, allowing mass migration to erode cultural identities, and referred to the ‘threat from within’ as the greatest danger facing the continent.
Naturally, the shadow of the transatlantic relationship loomed large over the proceedings of this year’s 62nd MSC, particularly in the context of US President Donald Trump’s claims on Greenland. But in contrast to Vance’s adversarial tirade, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who led the US delegation this year, struck a markedly warmer tone. To much applause, Rubio evoked America’s historical ties to the Old Continent and alluded to their shared cultural heritage and bonds of Christianity. He described the US as “a child of Europe” and emphasised their common destiny and intertwined fates.
Yet the substance of the speech — while repackaged and delivered more diplomatically to bring some relief to Europeans — remained the same. Several of Rubio’s statements were a direct reflection of Trumpian views.
From lamenting Europe’s “civilisational erasure” to criticising its migration and climate policies, the ideological underpinnings of the speech were drawn straight from the MAGA playbook and clearly echoed European far-right talking points — at the expense of centrist leaders currently in power across several key EU member states.
Emphasising America’s desire to lead global “renewal and restoration”, Rubio expressed a willingness to work together and rekindle transatlantic cooperation, but on US terms and grounded in a distinctly American conception of values, prescribing that Europe adjust accordingly. From lamenting Europe’s “civilisational erasure” to criticising its migration and climate policies, the ideological underpinnings of the speech were drawn straight from the MAGA playbook and clearly echoed European far-right talking points — at the expense of centrist leaders currently in power across several key EU member states.
Unsurprisingly, the speech resonated with segments of Europe’s far right, including Czech Deputy PM Petr Macinka of the hard-right Motorists Party in the Czech Republic. While urging Europe to assume greater responsibility for its own defence, Rubio alluded to the futility of the United Nations in resolving conflicts and underscored America’s retreat from the multilateral rules-based order. These views are not confined to rhetoric, but codified in US documents such as the National Security Strategy released at the end of 2025, which the Centre for Strategic and International Studies described as “a real, painful, shocking wake-up call for Europe”.
As the 2026 MSC report, “Under Destruction”, makes clear, the ruptures are fundamental: post-Second World War US strategy — and the norms and institutions that underpinned it — is being dismantled, and with it the transatlantic partnership once anchored in those foundations. Notably, Rubio did not mention Russia or China at all, and referred to Ukraine only once in his speech. To make matters worse, he travelled from Munich to Hungary and Slovakia, both governed by populist, anti-EU, pro-Russia governments.
These views are not confined to rhetoric, but codified in US documents such as the National Security Strategy released at the end of 2025, which the Centre for Strategic and International Studies described as “a real, painful, shocking wake-up call for Europe”.
Rubio’s speech, therefore, did not reflect an attempt to repair or reset transatlantic relations, but was rather a mere reinforcement of the Trump administration’s perceptions and expectations of Europe. Meanwhile, the ruptures in the alliance extend well beyond the content of speeches or even contentions over European defence spending, with the two sides diverging sharply on culture wars, free trade, the war in Ukraine, migration, climate crises, and the role of multilateral institutions and agreements.
It is clear that the US is recalibrating its global role and that American leadership has become increasingly conditional and unreliable. It would serve Europe well at this time not to respond reactively, but to read the writing on the wall and double down in earnest on its strategy of greater defence investment, production, and burden-sharing to strengthen NATO’s European pillar — and, in turn, the wider transatlantic partnership. This could help ensure that even while values may increasingly diverge, transatlantic ties remain anchored in shared interests and placed on a more equitable footing. At the same time, EU member states must overcome internal divisions and put their weight behind economic reforms, deeper integration, and deregulation.
It would serve Europe well at this time not to respond reactively, but to read the writing on the wall and double down in earnest on its strategy of greater defence investment, production, and burden-sharing to strengthen NATO’s European pillar — and, in turn, the wider transatlantic partnership.
Prior to Rubio’s speech, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addressed the widening transatlantic chasm, calling it an “inconvenient truth”, and offered a sombre prognosis of the end of the rules-based international order. French President Emmanuel Macron urged Europe to emerge as an independent geopolitical power. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasised plans to deploy warships to the Arctic and High North to counter Russian threats, while describing power as “the currency of the age”. Meanwhile, NATO announced the Arctic Sentry framework to bolster Arctic security and assuage Trump. These are encouraging signals, yet several European leaders are grappling with serious scandals and domestic challenges to their own leadership. In the case of Starmer, for instance, reports suggest that his days at Downing Street are numbered.
Europe needs action over complacency, delivery over rhetoric, and concrete decision-making. What it also requires is internal cohesion and stable leadership if it is to walk its talk on strategic autonomy.
Shairee Malhotra is Deputy Director – Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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