Correlation between the stock and bitcoin has jumped to nearly 1.00, even though crytpo represents a small part of Robinhood’s total revenue
Robinhood’s stock is hitting a fresh low as it follows the selloff in bitcoin, even through crypto trading is a relatively small part of its business.
Shares of Robinhood Markets sank toward an eight-month low Thursday, to extend losses suffered after a disappointing earnings report and from the continued selloff in bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency trading is still a relatively small part of the trading app’s business. But given heightened investor anxiety surrounding bitcoin (BTCUSD) as prices sank to 16-month lows, investors have been punishing companies with any crypto connection.
On Thursday, bitcoin fell 1.7%, and was headed for its 11th decline in the past 12 sessions, according to FactSet data. The losing streak was interrupted by a nearly 12% bounce on Friday, after bitcoin briefly traded below the $60,000 level intraday.
Meanwhile, Robinhood’s stock (HOOD) was dropping 8.8% in recent afternoon trading, to put it on track for its lowest close since June 2. It had slumped 8.9% on Wednesday after the company reported a fourth-quarter sales miss, with crypto revenue falling 38% from a year ago as bitcoin’s weakness during that quarter – it tumbled 23% during the last three months of 2025 – scared off traders.
Truist Securities analyst David Smith wrote in a note Thursday that the weakness in bitcoin prices was a known headwind for Robinhood during the fourth quarter, especially given how the stock often trades “with a high correlation to crypto prices.” He said the issue has compounded in recent weeks.
Since the start of 2026, the correlation coefficient between Robinhood’s stock and bitcoin rose to 0.96, according to a MarketWatch analysis of FactSet data, whereby a reading of 1.00 would mean they move exactly in sync. That compares with a 0.84 correlation during the fourth quarter, and a 0.53 correlation for all of 2025.
Basically, the more bitcoin falls, the more Robinhood’s stock trades like it – even though it probably shouldn’t.
“We have struggled with the strength of this correlation, as crypto trading was only 20% of revenue last year, and that figure is set to decline further,” Truist’s Smith wrote in a note to clients.
For the fourth quarter, Robinhood’s crypto revenue of $221 million represented about 17% of its total revenue of $1.28 billion. And crypto notional trading volumes of $82 billion for the quarter were just 11.5% of equity notional trading volumes of $710 billion.
Despite the recent weakness, Robinhood’s stock was still up 27.2% over the past 12 months, while bitcoin has dropped 32.7% over the same time. The S&P 500 index SPX has advanced 13.6% over the past year.
-Tomi Kilgore
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